KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/22/2020 1200 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 2/22/2020 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	2/22 18:00 Sat	2/22 21:00 Sat	2/23 00:00 Sun	2/23 03:00 Sun	2/23 06:00 Sun	2/23 09:00 Sun	2/23 12:00 Sun	2/23 15:00 Sun	2/23 18:00 Sun	2/23 21:00 Sun	2/24 00:00 Mon	2/24 03:00 Mon	2/24 06:00 Mon	2/24 09:00 Mon	2/24 12:00 Mon	2/24 15:00 Mon	2/24 18:00 Mon	2/24 21:00 Mon	2/25 00:00 Tue	2/25 06:00 Tue	2/25 12:00 Tue
Date/Time Local	2/22 13:00 Sat	2/22 16:00 Sat	2/22 19:00 Sat	2/22 22:00 Sat	2/23 01:00 Sun	2/23 04:00 Sun	2/23 07:00 Sun	2/23 10:00 Sun	2/23 13:00 Sun	2/23 16:00 Sun	2/23 19:00 Sun	2/23 22:00 Sun	2/24 01:00 Mon	2/24 04:00 Mon	2/24 07:00 Mon	2/24 10:00 Mon	2/24 13:00 Mon	2/24 16:00 Mon	2/24 19:00 Mon	2/25 01:00 Tue	2/25 07:00 Tue
GFS-N/X							29				53				40				51		45
NAM-N/X							29				49				37				47		41
GFS-TMP	44	47	40	36	34	33	32	41	49	52	49	45	44	43	43	44	47	48	46	47	47
NAM-TMP	45	49	41	35	33	32	33	38	46	48	44	41	41	40	39	41	44	44	43	44	44
GFS-DPT	15	14	15	17	19	19	21	25	26	28	29	30	31	33	35	37	41	41	41	43	45
NAM-DPT	12	11	13	15	15	17	20	24	25	27	29	32	33	34	35	36	38	39	39	39	41
GFS-CLD	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	FW	FW	SC	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV
NAM-CLD	CL	CL	CL	FW	CL	FW	SC	CL	FW	BK	OV	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV
GFS-WDR	21	21	20	20	20	19	18	20	21	21	20	20	22	20	18	17	16	14	13	14	17
NAM-WDR	21	21	20	20	20	19	19	20	21	21	20	21	20	19	18	17	17	12	10	13	16
GFS-WSP	08	10	05	05	05	05	06	09	11	11	06	06	05	04	04	08	08	09	08	07	08
NAM-WSP	08	09	04	04	05	04	05	07	09	09	06	06	05	05	04	06	06	07	12	07	05
GFS-P06			0		0		0		0		0		2		32		66		94	72	78
NAM-P06			0		0		1		1		2		2		23		75		85	79	58
GFS-P12							0				0				32				94		93
NAM-P12							1				2				23				91		00
GFS-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		1		2	2	2
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		1		2	2	1
GFS-Q12							0				0				0				3		3
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				2		3
GFS-T06			0/ 7		0/ 0		0/ 8		0/ 4		0/ 6		0/ 2		0/ 0		1/ 2		2/ 2		3/ 7
NAM-T06			0/ 0		0/ 9		0/ 8		0/ 1		0/ 5		0/ 1		1/ 0		1/ 1		2/10		2/ 4
GFS-T12					0/13				0/10				1/16				1/10			3/11
NAM-T12					0/ 9				0/ 8				0/ 5				2/ 1			2/10
GFS-POZ	0	2	4	17	6	9	8	5	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1
NAM-POZ	0	1	2	11	11	5	12	1	1	2	2	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
GFS-POS	54	18	26	37	48	50	53	14	8	1	1	1	1	2	0	2	4	2	1	1	2
NAM-POS	33	55	38	47	46	67	45	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	4	2	11	8	3	4	4
GFS-TYP	S	R	R	S	S	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	S	R	S	S	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
GFS-SNW							0								0						0
NAM-SNW							0								0						0
GFS-CIG	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	3
NAM-CIG	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	5	3	2	3	3	2	3	3
GFS-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	4
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	2	4	3	3	5	4	4	3
GFS-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	FG	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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