KD4PYR MOS Compare

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GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 9/18/2025 1800 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 9/18/2025 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	9/18 18:00 Thu	9/18 21:00 Thu	9/19 00:00 Fri	9/19 03:00 Fri	9/19 06:00 Fri	9/19 09:00 Fri	9/19 12:00 Fri	9/19 15:00 Fri	9/19 18:00 Fri	9/19 21:00 Fri	9/20 00:00 Sat	9/20 03:00 Sat	9/20 06:00 Sat	9/20 09:00 Sat	9/20 12:00 Sat	9/20 15:00 Sat	9/20 18:00 Sat	9/20 21:00 Sat	9/21 00:00 Sun	9/21 03:00 Sun	9/21 06:00 Sun	9/21 12:00 Sun	9/21 18:00 Sun
Date/Time Local	9/18 14:00 Thu	9/18 17:00 Thu	9/18 20:00 Thu	9/18 23:00 Thu	9/19 02:00 Fri	9/19 05:00 Fri	9/19 08:00 Fri	9/19 11:00 Fri	9/19 14:00 Fri	9/19 17:00 Fri	9/19 20:00 Fri	9/19 23:00 Fri	9/20 02:00 Sat	9/20 05:00 Sat	9/20 08:00 Sat	9/20 11:00 Sat	9/20 14:00 Sat	9/20 17:00 Sat	9/20 20:00 Sat	9/20 23:00 Sat	9/21 02:00 Sun	9/21 08:00 Sun	9/21 14:00 Sun
GFS-N/X	--	--					61				94				63				91			63
NAM-N/X							59				87				59				83	--		62	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	82	72	67	64	66	85	92	92	85	75	69	66	68	81	88	91	81	72	67	67	80
NAM-TMP	84	86	78	68	65	62	63	77	85	85	78	70	66	63	63	75	80	81	76	--	67	64	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	52	53	55	55	57	58	51	48	52	54	54	56	58	56	53	51	52	52	53	58	57
NAM-DPT	54	53	55	56	56	56	57	59	56	55	56	57	57	56	57	60	58	57	58	--	59	60	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	FW	CL	FW	SC	FW	CL	FW	CL	FW	CL	BK	BK
NAM-CLD	SC	SC	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	FW	FW	CL	CL	CL	CL	FW	CL	FW	SC	FW	--	CL	SC	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	05	13	16	16	00	19	27	17	13	13	15	15	12	14	14	16	13	13	16	16	20
NAM-WDR	29	33	02	09	12	00	07	12	07	08	08	11	09	07	07	13	13	13	14	--	14	16	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	03	02	02	01	00	02	03	04	03	04	03	02	03	05	06	06	05	05	04	05	08
NAM-WSP	04	05	04	02	01	00	01	02	04	04	05	03	03	03	03	04	05	05	05	--	04	07	--
GFS-P06	--	--			0		2		0		0		2		4		4		4		3	7	7
NAM-P06			1		1		3		3		3		5		5		5		6	--	5	11	--
GFS-P12	--	--					3				4				4				6			10
NAM-P12							3				4				6				7	--		16	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					0				0				0				0			0
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				0	--		0	--
GFS-T06	--	--			0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0		1/ 0		3/ 0		3/ 0		7/ 7		3/ 3		3/ 1
NAM-T06			0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0		1/ 0		6/ 0		1/ 0		1/ 0		2/ 1		12/ 6	--		5/ 0	--
GFS-T12	--	--							0/ 0				1/ 2				3/ 1				10/ 7		3/ 2
NAM-T12					0/ 0				1/ 0				7/ 0				2/ 1			--	16/ 6		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POZ	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	0	--
GFS-POS	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POS	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	1	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--													0							0
NAM-SNW							0								0					--		0	--
GFS-CIG	--	--	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
NAM-CIG	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	--	8	8	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	3	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	7	7	7	7	--	7	7	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	N	N	N	N	--	N	N	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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