KD4PYR MOS Compare

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GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 11/12/2018 1200 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 11/12/2018 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	11/12 18:00 Mon	11/12 21:00 Mon	11/13 00:00 Tue	11/13 03:00 Tue	11/13 06:00 Tue	11/13 09:00 Tue	11/13 12:00 Tue	11/13 15:00 Tue	11/13 18:00 Tue	11/13 21:00 Tue	11/14 00:00 Wed	11/14 03:00 Wed	11/14 06:00 Wed	11/14 09:00 Wed	11/14 12:00 Wed	11/14 15:00 Wed	11/14 18:00 Wed	11/14 21:00 Wed	11/15 00:00 Thu	11/15 06:00 Thu	11/15 12:00 Thu
Date/Time Local	11/12 13:00 Mon	11/12 16:00 Mon	11/12 19:00 Mon	11/12 22:00 Mon	11/13 01:00 Tue	11/13 04:00 Tue	11/13 07:00 Tue	11/13 10:00 Tue	11/13 13:00 Tue	11/13 16:00 Tue	11/13 19:00 Tue	11/13 22:00 Tue	11/14 01:00 Wed	11/14 04:00 Wed	11/14 07:00 Wed	11/14 10:00 Wed	11/14 13:00 Wed	11/14 16:00 Wed	11/14 19:00 Wed	11/15 01:00 Thu	11/15 07:00 Thu
GFS-N/X							33				41				22				44		31
NAM-N/X							31				39				20				42		25
GFS-TMP	42	44	40	39	38	36	35	36	39	39	33	30	27	24	24	32	40	43	37	34	35
NAM-TMP	42	43	40	35	35	34	33	34	37	36	31	29	25	23	21	31	38	41	35	30	27
GFS-DPT	26	27	28	31	32	32	31	30	27	25	23	22	19	18	17	20	19	18	18	20	25
NAM-DPT	27	27	28	28	29	29	29	28	26	23	20	19	17	15	14	16	17	17	17	17	19
GFS-CLD	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	FW	CL	CL	CL	CL	FW	FW	SC	BK	OV	OV
NAM-CLD	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL	FW	FW	CL	CL	BK
GFS-WDR	07	04	04	36	36	35	34	34	33	33	33	34	35	01	03	06	05	05	05	06	08
NAM-WDR	07	04	03	36	35	34	32	33	32	31	32	32	33	34	34	01	04	05	07	08	08
GFS-WSP	05	05	05	06	08	09	09	11	10	10	07	06	06	05	05	07	08	10	11	13	12
NAM-WSP	04	04	06	05	08	06	07	10	10	11	09	07	07	04	04	04	03	04	05	05	05
GFS-P06			48		63		42		5		6		2		3		3		1	7	54
NAM-P06			25		35		15		8		8		1		1		3		4	5	7
GFS-P12							63				9				3				3		57
NAM-P12							35				13				1				4		7
GFS-Q06			1		1		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	1
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	0
GFS-Q12							1				0				0				0		1
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				0		0
GFS-T06			0/14		0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 7		0/ 1		0/ 3		0/ 0		0/ 4		0/ 0		1/ 0
NAM-T06			0/14		0/ 0		0/ 3		0/ 4		0/ 8		0/ 7		0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0
GFS-T12					0/14				1/ 7				0/24				0/ 4			0/19
NAM-T12					0/14				0/ 4				0/ 8				1/ 0			0/ 4
GFS-POZ	1	7	13	10	8	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	2	7	23	19
NAM-POZ	1	2	5	13	11	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	3	14	13
GFS-POS	13	0	0	14	14	40	46	66	77	77	96	98	98	97	92	95	90	74	69	52	15
NAM-POS	13	22	25	36	57	60	67	78	75	88	94	97	97	90	97	96	96	90	89	54	29
GFS-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	R
GFS-SNW							0								0						0
NAM-SNW							0								0						0
GFS-CIG	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	5	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	3
NAM-CIG	7	6	6	6	6	6	4	4	5	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
GFS-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
GFS-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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