KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/30/2020 0600 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 3/30/2020 0000 UTC

Date/Time UTC	3/30 06:00 Mon	3/30 09:00 Mon	3/30 12:00 Mon	3/30 15:00 Mon	3/30 18:00 Mon	3/30 21:00 Mon	3/31 00:00 Tue	3/31 03:00 Tue	3/31 06:00 Tue	3/31 09:00 Tue	3/31 12:00 Tue	3/31 15:00 Tue	3/31 18:00 Tue	3/31 21:00 Tue	4/1 00:00 Wed	4/1 03:00 Wed	4/1 06:00 Wed	4/1 09:00 Wed	4/1 12:00 Wed	4/1 15:00 Wed	4/1 18:00 Wed	4/2 00:00 Thu	4/2 06:00 Thu
Date/Time Local	3/30 02:00 Mon	3/30 05:00 Mon	3/30 08:00 Mon	3/30 11:00 Mon	3/30 14:00 Mon	3/30 17:00 Mon	3/30 20:00 Mon	3/30 23:00 Mon	3/31 02:00 Tue	3/31 05:00 Tue	3/31 08:00 Tue	3/31 11:00 Tue	3/31 14:00 Tue	3/31 17:00 Tue	3/31 20:00 Tue	3/31 23:00 Tue	4/1 02:00 Wed	4/1 05:00 Wed	4/1 08:00 Wed	4/1 11:00 Wed	4/1 14:00 Wed	4/1 20:00 Wed	4/2 02:00 Thu
GFS-X/N	--	--					61				35				54				39			55
NAM-X/N							58				34				47				33	--		49	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	42	50	57	58	53	45	40	38	37	44	50	52	48	45	43	42	42	47	51	49	41
NAM-TMP	53	49	46	50	55	57	53	44	41	38	36	43	44	44	42	40	37	35	34	--	46	46	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	31	33	33	33	34	33	31	30	30	32	33	34	33	33	34	34	35	36	35	34	36
NAM-DPT	34	34	34	34	34	35	36	36	34	32	31	33	33	33	33	32	31	30	29	--	32	32	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	CL	SC	SC	BK	BK	OV	BK	SC	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	SC
NAM-CLD	CL	CL	FW	FW	SC	SC	BK	BK	OV	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	--	OV	OV	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	27	28	29	29	32	34	36	36	01	04	03	01	36	35	35	34	34	36	36	35	36
NAM-WDR	26	27	27	28	28	29	31	34	36	36	02	07	03	01	01	01	36	35	34	--	36	36	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	14	15	15	14	09	06	05	05	06	07	07	08	09	07	07	07	06	09	09	06	04
NAM-WSP	11	12	12	15	15	13	09	08	07	09	07	06	05	10	09	11	08	08	09	--	06	04	--
GFS-P06	--	--			0		0		1		1		1		12		5		0		0	0	0
NAM-P06			1		2		2		0		1		3		4		0		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-P12	--	--					0				1				17				8			3
NAM-P12							2				1				5				0	--		0	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					0				0				0				0			0
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				0	--		0	--
GFS-T06	--	--			0/ 2		0/ 3		0/ 0		0/ 0		1/ 0		5/ 0		0/ 0		1/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0
NAM-T06			0/ 9		0/ 2		0/ 6		0/ 3		0/ 0		0/ 0		3/ 0		1/ 0		0/ 0	--		0/ 4	--
GFS-T12	--	--							0/ 5				1/ 0				10/ 0				1/ 0		0/ 2
NAM-T12					0/ 9				0/ 6				0/ 0				3/ 0			--	0/ 0		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	0	--
GFS-POS	--	--	1	0	0	0	4	10	16	25	42	39	27	23	17	17	18	22	20	28	2	7	14
NAM-POS	1	0	1	11	0	0	3	3	1	2	20	22	29	22	23	24	21	37	15	--	12	2	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--									0								0
NAM-SNW											0								0	--			--
GFS-CIG	--	--	8	8	8	8	7	6	8	8	6	5	5	6	6	6	5	4	4	5	6	7	8
NAM-CIG	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	8	8	6	5	5	6	5	5	4	4	--	6	6	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	--	7	7	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	--	N	N	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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