KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/08/2021 1800 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/08/2021 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	5/8 18:00 Sat	5/8 21:00 Sat	5/9 00:00 Sun	5/9 03:00 Sun	5/9 06:00 Sun	5/9 09:00 Sun	5/9 12:00 Sun	5/9 15:00 Sun	5/9 18:00 Sun	5/9 21:00 Sun	5/10 00:00 Mon	5/10 03:00 Mon	5/10 06:00 Mon	5/10 09:00 Mon	5/10 12:00 Mon	5/10 15:00 Mon	5/10 18:00 Mon	5/10 21:00 Mon	5/11 00:00 Tue	5/11 03:00 Tue	5/11 06:00 Tue	5/11 12:00 Tue	5/11 18:00 Tue
Date/Time Local	5/8 14:00 Sat	5/8 17:00 Sat	5/8 20:00 Sat	5/8 23:00 Sat	5/9 02:00 Sun	5/9 05:00 Sun	5/9 08:00 Sun	5/9 11:00 Sun	5/9 14:00 Sun	5/9 17:00 Sun	5/9 20:00 Sun	5/9 23:00 Sun	5/10 02:00 Mon	5/10 05:00 Mon	5/10 08:00 Mon	5/10 11:00 Mon	5/10 14:00 Mon	5/10 17:00 Mon	5/10 20:00 Mon	5/10 23:00 Mon	5/11 02:00 Tue	5/11 08:00 Tue	5/11 14:00 Tue
GFS-N/X	--	--					47				61				41				62			40
NAM-N/X							46				62				42				61	--		39	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	56	51	50	49	51	59	59	57	56	52	47	44	44	53	58	60	57	51	47	43	57
NAM-TMP	56	58	57	50	49	48	49	55	56	57	53	49	46	44	45	52	58	59	55	--	45	43	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	35	35	35	38	42	48	50	50	50	45	40	38	38	38	37	35	35	36	34	32	29
NAM-DPT	32	32	33	37	39	41	44	50	50	48	44	38	37	37	37	37	36	34	33	--	34	34	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	SC	BK	BK
NAM-CLD	SC	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	BK	OV	--	OV	OV	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	24	11	09	11	15	20	22	29	35	01	02	01	01	03	36	33	33	35	35	34	33
NAM-WDR	32	27	23	10	09	11	12	19	20	21	34	02	02	36	02	01	34	33	35	--	34	34	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	04	03	10	18	18	16	19	13	17	16	13	08	08	08	07	07	08	05	05	07	12
NAM-WSP	05	04	04	04	03	10	18	16	19	16	15	15	15	11	09	08	10	12	11	--	04	08	--
GFS-P06	--	--			51		72		99		00		67		13		7		4		8	3	9
NAM-P06			1		12		16		70		75		33		11		7		9	--	22	19	--
GFS-P12	--	--					73				00				74				8			8
NAM-P12							23				91				37				11	--		26	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			1		2		4		4		1		0		0		0		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		3		2		0		0		0		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					1				5				1				0			0
NAM-Q12							0				3				0				0	--		0	--
GFS-T06	--	--			4/ 0		10/ 6		14/ 7		37/27		18/ 7		2/ 0		1/ 0		0/ 8		0/ 2		0/ 7
NAM-T06			0/ 9		7/ 7		5/ 6		17/ 8		28/29		8/ 6		1/ 0		0/ 1		2/ 8	--		2/ 4	--
GFS-T12	--	--							21/11				48/27				2/ 4				0/ 8		0/ 7
NAM-T12					7/ 9				22/ 9				28/29				5/ 1			--	5/ 9		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POZ	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	--	0	0	--
GFS-POS	--	--	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	1	0	0	3	4	9	15
NAM-POS	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	2	3	4	--	11	21	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--													0							0
NAM-SNW							0								0					--		0	--
GFS-CIG	--	--	7	7	6	6	6	5	3	3	3	2	4	4	6	8	6	7	7	8	8	8	6
NAM-CIG	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	6	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	7	8	7	7	--	7	8	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	7	5	3	3	2	2	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	3	3	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	--	7	7	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	--	N	N	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

4,330 Page Views