KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/17/2019 1800 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 1/18/2019 0000 UTC

Date/Time UTC	1/18 00:00 Fri	1/18 03:00 Fri	1/18 06:00 Fri	1/18 09:00 Fri	1/18 12:00 Fri	1/18 15:00 Fri	1/18 18:00 Fri	1/18 21:00 Fri	1/19 00:00 Sat	1/19 03:00 Sat	1/19 06:00 Sat	1/19 09:00 Sat	1/19 12:00 Sat	1/19 15:00 Sat	1/19 18:00 Sat	1/19 21:00 Sat	1/20 00:00 Sun	1/20 03:00 Sun	1/20 06:00 Sun	1/20 09:00 Sun	1/20 12:00 Sun	1/20 18:00 Sun	1/21 00:00 Mon
Date/Time Local	1/17 19:00 Thu	1/17 22:00 Thu	1/18 01:00 Fri	1/18 04:00 Fri	1/18 07:00 Fri	1/18 10:00 Fri	1/18 13:00 Fri	1/18 16:00 Fri	1/18 19:00 Fri	1/18 22:00 Fri	1/19 01:00 Sat	1/19 04:00 Sat	1/19 07:00 Sat	1/19 10:00 Sat	1/19 13:00 Sat	1/19 16:00 Sat	1/19 19:00 Sat	1/19 22:00 Sat	1/20 01:00 Sun	1/20 04:00 Sun	1/20 07:00 Sun	1/20 13:00 Sun	1/20 19:00 Sun
GFS-N/X					30				41				31				39			--	13		--
NAM-X/N	--	--							39				33				37				16		24
GFS-TMP	37	37	35	33	31	34	37	37	35	33	33	33	34	37	35	32	30	26	22	--	17	16	--
NAM-TMP	--	--	37	36	35	34	36	37	36	37	37	36	36	33	33	32	28	26	24	20	17	21	18
GFS-DPT	36	35	32	30	28	28	30	30	29	27	27	28	29	31	30	27	24	19	15	--	9	6	--
NAM-DPT	--	--	34	33	32	31	32	32	31	30	30	31	31	32	33	31	25	18	16	13	10	7	5
GFS-CLD	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	--	OV	SC	--
NAM-CLD	--	--	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	BK
GFS-WDR	19	26	29	30	30	30	30	10	09	08	08	07	07	06	02	36	36	35	35	--	34	35	--
NAM-WDR	--	--	28	29	28	28	19	09	09	10	10	08	08	08	03	01	36	35	35	35	35	33	35
GFS-WSP	05	06	07	06	04	04	02	03	05	08	11	13	17	13	14	19	27	24	22	--	14	13	--
NAM-WSP	--	--	06	07	05	05	02	02	05	08	10	12	12	13	12	19	26	23	21	17	13	09	08
GFS-P06			22		1		0		0		2		72		00		87		40	--	13	0	--
NAM-P06	--	--			1		1		1		7		75		96		78		46		4	3	0
GFS-P12					41				3				82				00			--	40		--
NAM-P12	--	--							2				78				00				52		3
GFS-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		2		4		2		1	--	0	0	--
NAM-Q06	--	--			0		0		0		0		1		3		2		1		0	0	0
GFS-Q12					0				0				2				4			--	0		--
NAM-Q12	--	--							0				2				3				1		0
GFS-T06			0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 3		0/ 4		0/ 2		2/ 8		1/ 0	--		0/ 6	--
NAM-T06	--	--			0/ 0		0/ 4		0/10		0/ 5		0/ 1		3/ 1		1/ 6		1/ 3		0/ 1		0/ 9
GFS-T12							1/ 3				0/11				1/ 4				2/10	--		1/ 6	--
NAM-T12	--	--					0/ 4				0/10				4/ 1				1/10			0/ 1
GFS-POZ	0	0	1	7	12	10	11	10	12	18	17	15	10	13	15	13	9	0	1	--	2	1	--
NAM-POZ	--	--	0	1	8	4	0	0	6	15	20	19	19	18	18	21	12	11	2	2	2	2	4
GFS-POS	11	24	35	53	57	64	64	58	48	39	28	14	19	11	23	54	67	98	96	--	98	99	--
NAM-POS	--	--	31	44	67	73	62	55	70	72	48	41	21	10	22	45	70	82	96	97	98	98	94
GFS-TYP	R	R	R	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	S	S	--	S	S	--
NAM-TYP	--	--	R	R	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	R	R	R	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S
GFS-SNW													0							--	2		--
NAM-SNW	--	--											0								2
GFS-CIG	2	1	2	2	2	4	4	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	3	4	4	--	4	8	--
NAM-CIG	--	--	2	2	2	1	4	4	4	5	4	4	3	2	2	3	2	4	5	5	8	8	8
GFS-VIS	3	2	1	2	5	5	6	7	7	7	5	3	3	2	2	3	5	7	7	--	7	7	--
NAM-VIS	--	--	1	1	2	1	5	6	6	6	6	4	4	2	3	3	4	6	7	7	7	7	7
GFS-OBV	BR	FG	FG	FG	BR	BR	HZ	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	FG	FG	BR	N	N	N	--	N	N	--
NAM-OBV	--	--	BL	FG	FG	FG	HZ	HZ	HZ	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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