KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/25/2018 0600 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/25/2018 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	5/25 12:00 Fri	5/25 15:00 Fri	5/25 18:00 Fri	5/25 21:00 Fri	5/26 00:00 Sat	5/26 03:00 Sat	5/26 06:00 Sat	5/26 09:00 Sat	5/26 12:00 Sat	5/26 15:00 Sat	5/26 18:00 Sat	5/26 21:00 Sat	5/27 00:00 Sun	5/27 03:00 Sun	5/27 06:00 Sun	5/27 09:00 Sun	5/27 12:00 Sun	5/27 15:00 Sun	5/27 18:00 Sun	5/27 21:00 Sun	5/28 00:00 Mon	5/28 06:00 Mon	5/28 12:00 Mon
Date/Time Local	5/25 08:00 Fri	5/25 11:00 Fri	5/25 14:00 Fri	5/25 17:00 Fri	5/25 20:00 Fri	5/25 23:00 Fri	5/26 02:00 Sat	5/26 05:00 Sat	5/26 08:00 Sat	5/26 11:00 Sat	5/26 14:00 Sat	5/26 17:00 Sat	5/26 20:00 Sat	5/26 23:00 Sat	5/27 02:00 Sun	5/27 05:00 Sun	5/27 08:00 Sun	5/27 11:00 Sun	5/27 14:00 Sun	5/27 17:00 Sun	5/27 20:00 Sun	5/28 02:00 Mon	5/28 08:00 Mon
GFS-X/N					86				65				85				66			--	90		--
NAM-N/X	--	--							68				82				67				88		67
GFS-TMP	64	77	84	84	79	72	69	67	69	78	82	82	77	72	70	68	71	81	87	--	83	71	--
NAM-TMP	--	--	83	84	79	73	70	69	71	76	79	78	75	72	70	69	70	81	85	85	81	72	71
GFS-DPT	58	59	57	57	59	61	62	62	64	67	68	67	68	67	66	65	67	65	63	--	63	64	--
NAM-DPT	--	--	56	56	58	62	63	64	66	69	69	69	69	68	67	67	68	71	70	69	68	67	67
GFS-CLD	CL	CL	FW	FW	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	BK	FW	BK	SC	FW	SC	BK	--	SC	CL	--
NAM-CLD	--	--	CL	CL	SC	SC	BK	OV	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	SC	FW	SC
GFS-WDR	00	21	21	20	19	19	19	19	20	22	23	25	26	24	24	25	30	30	01	--	09	16	--
NAM-WDR	--	--	23	21	20	18	18	19	19	21	21	23	24	24	23	23	24	26	24	24	20	18	26
GFS-WSP	00	03	05	06	04	03	04	03	06	07	08	07	05	03	02	02	02	03	04	--	05	01	--
NAM-WSP	--	--	05	06	04	03	03	03	05	08	09	08	05	04	04	02	03	04	05	05	03	01	01
GFS-P06			0		3		17		31		59		65		22		5		3	--	3	2	--
NAM-P06	--	--			1		6		48		43		55		17		7		4		4	2	3
GFS-P12					3				36				83				36			--	7		--
NAM-P12	--	--							48				74				20				5		8
GFS-Q06			0		0		0		0		2		3		0		0		0	--	0	0	--
NAM-Q06	--	--			0		0		1		1		1		0		0		0		0	0	0
GFS-Q12					0				0				3				0			--	0		--
NAM-Q12	--	--							1				2				0				0		0
GFS-T06			0/ 0		6/ 1		14/ 3		13/ 1		32/ 3		63/19		28/ 9		3/ 0		4/ 2	--		4/ 5	--
NAM-T06	--	--			0/ 0		3/ 1		23/ 3		23/ 6		50/19		22/10		11/ 2		9/ 5		18/20		10/ 3
GFS-T12							14/ 8				42/ 3				70/20				4/ 5	--		17/13	--
NAM-T12	--	--					7/ 1				45/ 6				58/21				15/ 5			21/22
GFS-POZ	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	--	1	1	--
NAM-POZ	--	--	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
GFS-POS	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	0	--
NAM-POS	--	--	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
GFS-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
NAM-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
GFS-SNW									0								0			--			--
NAM-SNW	--	--							0								0						0
GFS-CIG	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	8	8	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	--	8	8	--
NAM-CIG	--	--	8	8	8	8	8	7	8	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	1	8	7	1	8	8	8
GFS-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	3	7	7	--	7	6	--
NAM-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	7	7	7	7	7	4
GFS-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	N	N	--	N	BR	--
NAM-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	N	N	N	N	N	BR

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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