KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 8/12/2020 0600 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 8/12/2020 0000 UTC

Date/Time UTC	8/12 06:00 Wed	8/12 09:00 Wed	8/12 12:00 Wed	8/12 15:00 Wed	8/12 18:00 Wed	8/12 21:00 Wed	8/13 00:00 Thu	8/13 03:00 Thu	8/13 06:00 Thu	8/13 09:00 Thu	8/13 12:00 Thu	8/13 15:00 Thu	8/13 18:00 Thu	8/13 21:00 Thu	8/14 00:00 Fri	8/14 03:00 Fri	8/14 06:00 Fri	8/14 09:00 Fri	8/14 12:00 Fri	8/14 15:00 Fri	8/14 18:00 Fri	8/15 00:00 Sat	8/15 06:00 Sat
Date/Time Local	8/12 02:00 Wed	8/12 05:00 Wed	8/12 08:00 Wed	8/12 11:00 Wed	8/12 14:00 Wed	8/12 17:00 Wed	8/12 20:00 Wed	8/12 23:00 Wed	8/13 02:00 Thu	8/13 05:00 Thu	8/13 08:00 Thu	8/13 11:00 Thu	8/13 14:00 Thu	8/13 17:00 Thu	8/13 20:00 Thu	8/13 23:00 Thu	8/14 02:00 Fri	8/14 05:00 Fri	8/14 08:00 Fri	8/14 11:00 Fri	8/14 14:00 Fri	8/14 20:00 Fri	8/15 02:00 Sat
GFS-X/N	--	--					85				69				83				70			80
NAM-X/N							85				65				87				68	--		81	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	71	77	81	82	78	74	72	70	70	75	80	81	77	74	73	72	71	73	76	74	69
NAM-TMP	72	70	70	78	82	83	79	73	70	68	69	78	83	84	81	74	72	70	71	--	78	74	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	69	70	71	71	70	68	67	67	67	67	68	69	69	69	69	69	69	69	69	69	68
NAM-DPT	70	69	69	69	67	66	66	65	65	64	64	64	64	63	64	66	66	66	67	--	69	69	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	BK	OV	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	OV	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	OV	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV
NAM-CLD	SC	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	SC	SC	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	BK	OV	OV	BK	--	OV	OV	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	04	07	05	36	04	05	04	04	03	04	05	05	07	06	07	07	07	08	07	09	09
NAM-WDR	35	36	35	06	02	35	35	03	03	03	03	05	05	05	05	03	05	05	07	--	10	09	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	04	04	03	06	07	06	05	04	04	06	06	07	06	06	04	03	04	05	05	05	07
NAM-WSP	01	01	02	03	04	04	04	04	03	03	04	05	07	07	06	05	05	05	04	--	05	06	--
GFS-P06	--	--			3		13		21		9		12		23		30		46		56	54	49
NAM-P06			3		2		1		2		3		7		1		2		24	--	37	43	--
GFS-P12	--	--					15				25				27				53			76
NAM-P12							4				4				7				24	--		56	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		2		3	3	2
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	--	1	1	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					0				0				0				1			4
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				0	--		1	--
GFS-T06	--	--			8/ 5		28/13		23/ 1		2/ 0		4/ 2		24/ 3		18/ 0		18/ 2		21/ 5		21/ 1
NAM-T06			1/ 0		1/ 3		8/ 6		8/ 1		4/ 3		7/ 5		16/12		10/ 5		13/ 2	--		33/11	--
GFS-T12	--	--							39/13				4/ 3				28/ 5				30/ 6		36/ 8
NAM-T12					5/ 3				10/ 6				7/ 5				21/12			--	29/ 6		--
GFS-CIG	--	--	8	6	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	4	6	6	6
NAM-CIG	8	7	7	6	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	8	--	6	7	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	3	6	7	7	5
NAM-VIS	5	3	2	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	--	7	7	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	HZ	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	N	N	N	BR
NAM-OBV	BR	BR	FG	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	--	N	N	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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