KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/24/2021 1800 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 2/24/2021 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	2/24 18:00 Wed	2/24 21:00 Wed	2/25 00:00 Thu	2/25 03:00 Thu	2/25 06:00 Thu	2/25 09:00 Thu	2/25 12:00 Thu	2/25 15:00 Thu	2/25 18:00 Thu	2/25 21:00 Thu	2/26 00:00 Fri	2/26 03:00 Fri	2/26 06:00 Fri	2/26 09:00 Fri	2/26 12:00 Fri	2/26 15:00 Fri	2/26 18:00 Fri	2/26 21:00 Fri	2/27 00:00 Sat	2/27 03:00 Sat	2/27 06:00 Sat	2/27 12:00 Sat	2/27 18:00 Sat
Date/Time Local	2/24 13:00 Wed	2/24 16:00 Wed	2/24 19:00 Wed	2/24 22:00 Wed	2/25 01:00 Thu	2/25 04:00 Thu	2/25 07:00 Thu	2/25 10:00 Thu	2/25 13:00 Thu	2/25 16:00 Thu	2/25 19:00 Thu	2/25 22:00 Thu	2/26 01:00 Fri	2/26 04:00 Fri	2/26 07:00 Fri	2/26 10:00 Fri	2/26 13:00 Fri	2/26 16:00 Fri	2/26 19:00 Fri	2/26 22:00 Fri	2/27 01:00 Sat	2/27 07:00 Sat	2/27 13:00 Sat
GFS-N/X	--	--					31				48				29				53			44
NAM-N/X							30				40				23				44	--		39	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	48	42	38	35	33	38	44	46	41	36	34	32	31	40	49	52	49	45	46	47	61
NAM-TMP	57	58	50	40	38	35	32	32	37	38	34	30	28	26	24	32	39	44	42	--	42	43	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	40	34	30	28	27	27	25	24	24	25	25	24	24	26	29	31	33	36	38	41	43
NAM-DPT	40	38	34	31	30	28	26	25	25	24	23	25	24	23	22	23	26	28	30	--	35	37	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	OV	OV	BK	SC	SC	SC	BK	SC	BK	OV	OV	BK	FW	FW	FW	SC	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK
NAM-CLD	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	BK	BK	OV	FW	SC	SC	BK	SC	OV	--	OV	OV	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	31	34	35	36	01	01	35	35	02	03	05	06	08	09	09	12	13	15	17	21	24
NAM-WDR	23	27	31	33	34	36	35	34	31	30	33	34	03	07	09	09	11	11	11	--	15	18	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	13	14	10	07	05	06	05	06	06	04	05	07	08	11	09	11	08	08	09	09	07
NAM-WSP	13	11	09	10	11	09	07	06	07	07	05	03	02	02	03	07	08	08	09	--	11	10	--
GFS-P06	--	--			19		2		0		0		1		3		2		2		11	61	37
NAM-P06			9		1		4		5		4		4		3		6		6	--	22	67	--
GFS-P12	--	--					19				0				3				7			61
NAM-P12							5				5				4				14	--		74	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	1	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	--	0	2	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					0				0				0				0			1
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				0	--		2	--
GFS-T06	--	--			0/ 3		0/ 2		0/ 3		0/ 5		0/ 6		1/ 0		0/ 0		1/ 2		1/ 8		2/ 4
NAM-T06			0/11		0/10		0/ 4		0/ 5		0/ 9		0/14		0/ 5		0/ 9		2/12	--		3/10	--
GFS-T12	--	--							0/ 6				0/10				1/ 9				1/11		2/ 7
NAM-T12					0/11				0/ 7				0/14				0/ 9			--	2/15		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	0	1	0	1	1
NAM-POZ	0	0	0	4	0	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	6	0	0	0	--	1	1	--
GFS-POS	--	--	0	26	67	90	85	60	57	38	54	62	68	79	72	36	13	0	2	2	4	1	3
NAM-POS	0	1	2	25	72	94	98	99	75	80	92	95	98	97	95	75	55	26	13	--	2	2	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	S	S	S	S	S	R	S	S	S	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--													0							0
NAM-SNW							0								0					--		0	--
GFS-CIG	--	--	6	8	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	5	4	4	3	8
NAM-CIG	7	6	8	6	5	5	4	4	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	--	4	3	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	5	4	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	--	5	5	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	BR	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	--	HZ	BR	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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