KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 9/26/2023 1800 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 9/26/2023 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	9/26 18:00 Tue	9/26 21:00 Tue	9/27 00:00 Wed	9/27 03:00 Wed	9/27 06:00 Wed	9/27 09:00 Wed	9/27 12:00 Wed	9/27 15:00 Wed	9/27 18:00 Wed	9/27 21:00 Wed	9/28 00:00 Thu	9/28 03:00 Thu	9/28 06:00 Thu	9/28 09:00 Thu	9/28 12:00 Thu	9/28 15:00 Thu	9/28 18:00 Thu	9/28 21:00 Thu	9/29 00:00 Fri	9/29 03:00 Fri	9/29 06:00 Fri	9/29 12:00 Fri	9/29 18:00 Fri
Date/Time Local	9/26 14:00 Tue	9/26 17:00 Tue	9/26 20:00 Tue	9/26 23:00 Tue	9/27 02:00 Wed	9/27 05:00 Wed	9/27 08:00 Wed	9/27 11:00 Wed	9/27 14:00 Wed	9/27 17:00 Wed	9/27 20:00 Wed	9/27 23:00 Wed	9/28 02:00 Thu	9/28 05:00 Thu	9/28 08:00 Thu	9/28 11:00 Thu	9/28 14:00 Thu	9/28 17:00 Thu	9/28 20:00 Thu	9/28 23:00 Thu	9/29 02:00 Fri	9/29 08:00 Fri	9/29 14:00 Fri
GFS-N/X	--	--					61				79				62				78			60
NAM-N/X							59				73				59				72	--		58	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	74	69	66	63	62	70	75	76	70	67	66	64	63	69	74	75	70	67	64	62	82
NAM-TMP	76	77	71	65	63	62	60	65	70	70	66	64	63	61	60	64	68	70	66	--	61	59	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	59	59	58	58	58	60	60	60	61	60	59	59	59	63	64	64	63	62	61	60	60
NAM-DPT	58	59	59	58	58	58	57	59	61	61	62	60	60	59	58	60	62	62	61	--	61	59	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	OV	OV	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	SC	CL	CL	FW	SC
NAM-CLD	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	--	BK	BK	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	09	08	09	10	12	17	24	21	13	15	16	17	19	22	23	24	23	16	17	14	20
NAM-WDR	11	10	10	10	10	09	10	13	11	12	12	13	14	15	16	16	15	13	11	--	11	10	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	08	06	07	05	05	06	06	05	04	04	05	05	06	08	08	07	04	03	03	02	04
NAM-WSP	06	06	08	06	05	06	07	05	05	06	06	06	07	07	08	07	07	06	06	--	04	03	--
GFS-P06	--	--			55		45		28		27		54		64		44		33		14	3	0
NAM-P06			1		25		15		59		61		51		57		43		32	--	22	13	--
GFS-P12	--	--					78				41				83				57			19
NAM-P12							30				84				81				53	--		29	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			1		1		0		0		1		2		1		0		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		1		1		1		1		1		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					2				0				3				1			0
NAM-Q12							0				2				2				1	--		0	--
GFS-T06	--	--			32/ 3		17/ 0		11/ 1		11/ 3		30/ 3		34/ 1		16/ 2		25/ 0		8/ 0		1/ 2
NAM-T06			1/ 2		13/ 4		6/ 0		13/ 3		28/ 6		23/ 3		24/ 0		13/ 4		20/ 5	--		4/ 0	--
GFS-T12	--	--							25/ 3				43/ 5				36/ 3				30/ 3		2/ 3
NAM-T12					13/ 4				22/ 3				36/ 6				29/ 4			--	35/ 5		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	0	--
GFS-POS	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	3	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--													0							0
NAM-SNW							0								0					--		0	--
GFS-CIG	--	--	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	8	7	7	6	3	4	5	6	8	8	8	8	8
NAM-CIG	7	7	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	5	6	7	6	4	4	3	4	4	5	--	6	3	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	1	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	5	4	7	7	6	6	6	7	7	7	3	5	5	5	--	5	1	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	FG	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	HZ	HZ	--	BR	FG	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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