KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/22/2020 0000 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 10/22/2020 0000 UTC

Date/Time UTC	10/22 06:00 Thu	10/22 09:00 Thu	10/22 12:00 Thu	10/22 15:00 Thu	10/22 18:00 Thu	10/22 21:00 Thu	10/23 00:00 Fri	10/23 03:00 Fri	10/23 06:00 Fri	10/23 09:00 Fri	10/23 12:00 Fri	10/23 15:00 Fri	10/23 18:00 Fri	10/23 21:00 Fri	10/24 00:00 Sat	10/24 03:00 Sat	10/24 06:00 Sat	10/24 09:00 Sat	10/24 12:00 Sat	10/24 18:00 Sat	10/25 00:00 Sun
Date/Time Local	10/22 02:00 Thu	10/22 05:00 Thu	10/22 08:00 Thu	10/22 11:00 Thu	10/22 14:00 Thu	10/22 17:00 Thu	10/22 20:00 Thu	10/22 23:00 Thu	10/23 02:00 Fri	10/23 05:00 Fri	10/23 08:00 Fri	10/23 11:00 Fri	10/23 14:00 Fri	10/23 17:00 Fri	10/23 20:00 Fri	10/23 23:00 Fri	10/24 02:00 Sat	10/24 05:00 Sat	10/24 08:00 Sat	10/24 14:00 Sat	10/24 20:00 Sat
GFS-X/N							77				62				73				49		55
NAM-X/N							78				63				76				41		55
GFS-TMP	65	63	62	69	74	75	71	68	66	64	64	70	69	67	63	60	57	53	50	52	48
NAM-TMP	60	59	58	69	74	76	71	68	67	66	66	68	72	72	65	51	48	44	41	51	49
GFS-DPT	60	59	59	61	62	62	62	61	59	59	60	62	61	60	59	58	55	51	47	43	41
NAM-DPT	58	58	58	60	61	61	61	60	59	59	60	60	61	59	54	45	42	39	36	37	37
GFS-CLD	FW	SC	OV	BK	SC	SC	CL	CL	CL	FW	BK	OV	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV
NAM-CLD	BK	FW	BK	OV	OV	BK	BK	SC	CL	SC	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK
GFS-WDR	14	16	16	19	21	19	16	16	17	18	18	20	22	22	30	33	35	36	36	02	03
NAM-WDR	13	15	17	18	21	19	17	17	17	18	19	19	20	19	26	32	35	35	36	03	06
GFS-WSP	04	03	04	06	07	07	05	05	06	06	06	12	11	09	09	12	14	13	13	11	10
NAM-WSP	03	04	04	05	07	07	05	04	05	05	06	11	11	11	07	14	14	14	12	09	07
GFS-P06			3		18		10		4		8		47		68		42		30	22	18
NAM-P06			8		2		3		2		4		32		58		78		31	9	9
GFS-P12							26				11				92				44		24
NAM-P12							3				9				65				79		10
GFS-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		1		2		1		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		2		2		0	0	0
GFS-Q12							0				0				3				1		0
NAM-Q12							0				0				2				2		0
GFS-T06			1/ 0		1/ 1		2/ 5		0/16		8/ 0		27/ 8		30/10		13/ 8		2/ 0		1/ 0
NAM-T06			0/ 0		0/ 3		4/19		3/10		13/ 1		19/ 8		31/23		19/ 7		2/ 1		1/10
GFS-T12					1/ 1				2/16				27/ 8				38/17			2/ 5
NAM-T12					0/ 3				4/19				19/ 8				50/23			2/ 3
GFS-POZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
GFS-POS	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POS	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
GFS-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
GFS-SNW											0								0
NAM-SNW											0								0
GFS-CIG	8	8	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	6	7	8	6	4	4	4	4	6	6
NAM-CIG	8	8	7	6	6	6	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	6	5	3	4	6	5	8	8
GFS-VIS	5	5	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
NAM-VIS	3	3	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	7	7	7	7	7
GFS-OBV	BR	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
NAM-OBV	BR	BR	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	N	N	N	N	N

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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