KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/15/2019 1800 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 10/15/2019 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	10/15 18:00 Tue	10/15 21:00 Tue	10/16 00:00 Wed	10/16 03:00 Wed	10/16 06:00 Wed	10/16 09:00 Wed	10/16 12:00 Wed	10/16 15:00 Wed	10/16 18:00 Wed	10/16 21:00 Wed	10/17 00:00 Thu	10/17 03:00 Thu	10/17 06:00 Thu	10/17 09:00 Thu	10/17 12:00 Thu	10/17 15:00 Thu	10/17 18:00 Thu	10/17 21:00 Thu	10/18 00:00 Fri	10/18 03:00 Fri	10/18 06:00 Fri	10/18 12:00 Fri	10/18 18:00 Fri
Date/Time Local	10/15 14:00 Tue	10/15 17:00 Tue	10/15 20:00 Tue	10/15 23:00 Tue	10/16 02:00 Wed	10/16 05:00 Wed	10/16 08:00 Wed	10/16 11:00 Wed	10/16 14:00 Wed	10/16 17:00 Wed	10/16 20:00 Wed	10/16 23:00 Wed	10/17 02:00 Thu	10/17 05:00 Thu	10/17 08:00 Thu	10/17 11:00 Thu	10/17 14:00 Thu	10/17 17:00 Thu	10/17 20:00 Thu	10/17 23:00 Thu	10/18 02:00 Fri	10/18 08:00 Fri	10/18 14:00 Fri
GFS-N/X	--	--					48				53				39				57			39
NAM-N/X							46				51				38				55	--		36	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	69	65	61	55	50	48	50	50	46	44	44	42	42	49	54	55	50	46	43	41	61
NAM-TMP	67	71	68	62	58	53	47	46	49	48	44	44	42	41	41	47	51	52	48	--	41	38	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	53	55	54	49	44	40	39	37	36	35	35	35	36	37	37	37	38	38	37	37	40
NAM-DPT	45	49	53	55	51	46	41	38	38	37	35	35	35	35	35	36	36	35	34	--	33	33	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	FW	FW	SC	FW	SC	FW	CL	CL	CL	CL	CL
NAM-CLD	FW	BK	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	BK	OV	BK	BK	BK	SC	--	CL	FW	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	19	20	26	30	29	30	29	29	30	29	28	29	29	31	30	30	31	32	34	04	14
NAM-WDR	16	19	18	20	23	30	30	30	28	29	29	28	28	29	29	30	30	29	30	--	31	34	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	07	08	11	14	13	16	15	15	12	10	08	08	06	09	10	09	05	03	02	02	05
NAM-WSP	09	10	06	07	08	13	12	14	12	14	12	11	10	09	07	11	12	13	06	--	04	04	--
GFS-P06	--	--			49		81		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	1	3
NAM-P06			0		38		85		6		0		0		0		0		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-P12	--	--					00				1				0				0			3
NAM-P12							85				6				0				1	--		0	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			1		2		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		2		0		0		0		0		0		0	--	0	0	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					2				0				0				0			0
NAM-Q12							3				0				0				0	--		0	--
GFS-T06	--	--			40/14		21/ 0		1/ 3		0/ 0		0/ 0		1/ 0		1/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0		0/ 0
NAM-T06			0/ 7		21/14		23/ 0		0/ 2		0/ 2		0/ 8		0/ 0		0/ 3		0/ 7	--		0/ 1	--
GFS-T12	--	--							21/ 3				0/ 6				3/ 2				0/ 0		0/ 1
NAM-T12					21/14				23/ 2				0/ 8				1/ 3			--	0/ 7		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
NAM-POZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	1	2	--
GFS-POS	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	19	21	20	11	12	3	6	0	1	1	1	0	0
NAM-POS	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	5	4	4	15	5	2	2	2	2	4	4	--	0	14	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--													0							0
NAM-SNW							0								0					--		0	--
GFS-CIG	--	--	8	7	5	5	8	6	6	6	6	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
NAM-CIG	8	8	8	6	5	3	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	7	8	6	7	8	--	8	8	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	--	7	7	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	--	N	N	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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