KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 8/18/2017 1200 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 8/18/2017 1200 UTC

Date/Time UTC	8/18 18:00 Fri	8/18 21:00 Fri	8/19 00:00 Sat	8/19 03:00 Sat	8/19 06:00 Sat	8/19 09:00 Sat	8/19 12:00 Sat	8/19 15:00 Sat	8/19 18:00 Sat	8/19 21:00 Sat	8/20 00:00 Sun	8/20 03:00 Sun	8/20 06:00 Sun	8/20 09:00 Sun	8/20 12:00 Sun	8/20 15:00 Sun	8/20 18:00 Sun	8/20 21:00 Sun	8/21 00:00 Mon	8/21 06:00 Mon	8/21 12:00 Mon
Date/Time Local	8/18 14:00 Fri	8/18 17:00 Fri	8/18 20:00 Fri	8/18 23:00 Fri	8/19 02:00 Sat	8/19 05:00 Sat	8/19 08:00 Sat	8/19 11:00 Sat	8/19 14:00 Sat	8/19 17:00 Sat	8/19 20:00 Sat	8/19 23:00 Sat	8/20 02:00 Sun	8/20 05:00 Sun	8/20 08:00 Sun	8/20 11:00 Sun	8/20 14:00 Sun	8/20 17:00 Sun	8/20 20:00 Sun	8/21 02:00 Mon	8/21 08:00 Mon
GFS-N/X							65				85				64				87		67
NAM-N/X							65				85				64				88		65
GFS-TMP	81	82	79	72	69	67	68	75	81	83	78	72	68	66	67	78	84	85	80	72	71
NAM-TMP	81	83	79	74	71	68	68	76	81	82	78	72	69	67	67	80	85	86	81	71	69
GFS-DPT	65	65	66	67	67	66	66	67	67	66	65	65	65	65	65	66	66	65	66	67	67
NAM-DPT	64	63	63	63	62	62	63	65	65	65	66	65	65	64	65	67	65	64	64	64	65
GFS-CLD	SC	SC	CL	CL	CL	SC	OV	OV	SC	SC	FW	CL	CL	CL	CL	SC	SC	SC	SC	SC	SC
NAM-CLD	BK	SC	SC	SC	SC	SC	BK	OV	BK	BK	FW	CL	CL	CL	FW	SC	FW	FW	CL	CL	FW
GFS-WDR	27	27	27	24	23	19	19	22	27	30	31	30	30	10	12	14	18	20	16	18	16
NAM-WDR	27	27	27	23	21	20	23	25	27	28	29	34	09	13	12	13	21	20	12	15	17
GFS-WSP	11	11	06	05	03	03	05	10	11	09	06	02	01	01	01	05	05	06	04	03	03
NAM-WSP	11	11	05	02	03	03	05	06	07	07	05	01	01	01	01	05	04	04	04	02	03
GFS-P06			0		0		13		29		10		0		3		0		6	5	2
NAM-P06			2		2		5		5		3		5		5		4		6	3	4
GFS-P12							16				35				4				7		6
NAM-P12							6				12				8				8		8
GFS-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	0
NAM-Q06			0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0		0	0	0
GFS-Q12							0				0				0				0		0
NAM-Q12							0				0				0				0		0
GFS-T06			0/ 5		1/ 0		11/ 1		24/ 6		14/13		1/ 0		0/ 0		1/ 2		6/ 7		2/ 1
NAM-T06			3/ 3		3/ 2		7/ 3		8/ 5		14/ 9		2/ 5		1/ 2		3/ 3		10/ 7		1/ 1
GFS-T12					1/ 5				33/ 7				14/13				1/ 3			6/ 8
NAM-T12					3/ 3				14/ 5				14/ 9				3/ 3			10/ 7
GFS-CIG	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
NAM-CIG	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
GFS-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	7	7	7	7	7	6	2	1	6	7	7	7	7	5
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	5	5	3	1	6	7	7	7	6	4
GFS-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	N	N	N	N	N	HZ	FG	FG	HZ	N	N	N	N	BR
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	HZ	N	N	N	BR	BR	BR	FG	HZ	N	N	N	HZ	BR

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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