KD4PYR MOS Compare

GFS and NAM MOS Compare

KCVG GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/01/2025 0600 UTC
KCVG NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/01/2025 0000 UTC

Date/Time UTC	5/1 06:00 Thu	5/1 09:00 Thu	5/1 12:00 Thu	5/1 15:00 Thu	5/1 18:00 Thu	5/1 21:00 Thu	5/2 00:00 Fri	5/2 03:00 Fri	5/2 06:00 Fri	5/2 09:00 Fri	5/2 12:00 Fri	5/2 15:00 Fri	5/2 18:00 Fri	5/2 21:00 Fri	5/3 00:00 Sat	5/3 03:00 Sat	5/3 06:00 Sat	5/3 09:00 Sat	5/3 12:00 Sat	5/3 15:00 Sat	5/3 18:00 Sat	5/4 00:00 Sun	5/4 06:00 Sun
Date/Time Local	5/1 02:00 Thu	5/1 05:00 Thu	5/1 08:00 Thu	5/1 11:00 Thu	5/1 14:00 Thu	5/1 17:00 Thu	5/1 20:00 Thu	5/1 23:00 Thu	5/2 02:00 Fri	5/2 05:00 Fri	5/2 08:00 Fri	5/2 11:00 Fri	5/2 14:00 Fri	5/2 17:00 Fri	5/2 20:00 Fri	5/2 23:00 Fri	5/3 02:00 Sat	5/3 05:00 Sat	5/3 08:00 Sat	5/3 11:00 Sat	5/3 14:00 Sat	5/3 20:00 Sat	5/4 02:00 Sun
GFS-X/N	--	--					76				58				77				59			65
NAM-X/N							75				57				73				52	--		63	--
GFS-TMP	--	--	67	71	73	73	70	64	61	60	62	69	73	73	71	65	63	61	61	61	62	60	53
NAM-TMP	69	68	67	70	72	71	67	62	60	59	60	67	69	69	64	59	57	55	54	--	59	57	--
GFS-DPT	--	--	60	60	60	59	58	58	57	56	57	59	59	57	55	54	53	53	54	55	56	54	50
NAM-DPT	62	62	62	64	62	61	61	58	57	58	59	61	59	57	54	55	53	51	50	--	49	45	--
GFS-CLD	--	--	OV	OV	OV	OV	BK	OV	OV	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV
NAM-CLD	BK	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	OV	--	OV	OV	--
GFS-WDR	--	--	18	20	22	21	22	20	21	21	21	24	25	25	25	22	14	14	17	19	24	35	34
NAM-WDR	12	15	18	21	21	24	22	22	21	21	22	23	25	25	12	01	35	35	36	--	04	02	--
GFS-WSP	--	--	12	15	17	16	12	08	07	07	07	11	11	09	04	03	04	06	08	09	09	05	07
NAM-WSP	08	08	12	13	15	13	10	09	07	06	07	09	12	06	09	13	11	04	05	--	10	11	--
GFS-P06	--	--			31		33		40		14		29		57		45		58		80	73	62
NAM-P06			11		51		51		36		34		34		65		63		28	--	43	36	--
GFS-P12	--	--					88				47				68				58			92
NAM-P12							77				59				75				73	--		43	--
GFS-Q06	--	--			0		0		0		0		0		2		1		1		3	3	1
NAM-Q06			0		1		1		0		0		0		3		2		0	--	1	0	--
GFS-Q12	--	--					2				1				2				2			4
NAM-Q12							2				1				2				3	--		1	--
GFS-T06	--	--			11/ 5		17/16		18/ 4		4/ 1		15/ 4		47/19		24/ 4		24/ 3		24/ 1		17/ 2
NAM-T06			14/ 8		25/ 8		40/20		20/ 8		17/ 6		17/ 7		34/21		34/13		4/ 4	--		5/10	--
GFS-T12	--	--							25/17				19/ 5				49/19				46/ 4		27/ 8
NAM-T12					40/11				54/20				23/ 8				45/21			--	4/ 4		--
GFS-POZ	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NAM-POZ	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	--	0	0	--
GFS-POS	--	--	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
NAM-POS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	--	0	2	--
GFS-TYP	--	--	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
NAM-TYP	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	--	R	R	--
GFS-SNW	--	--									0								0
NAM-SNW											0								0	--			--
GFS-CIG	--	--	8	7	6	6	6	8	3	4	4	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	3	3	3	4	2
NAM-CIG	8	7	7	7	5	6	7	4	4	3	3	4	6	6	5	4	3	3	3	--	4	5	--
GFS-VIS	--	--	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	3	5	5	5
NAM-VIS	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	5	7	6	7	--	7	7	--
GFS-OBV	--	--	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	BR	BR	BR	BR	BR
NAM-OBV	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	HZ	BR	N	N	N	--	N	N	--

Entries of "--" indicate that the current model run does not include forecast data for the time period.

Descriptions of MOS Elements

DT = The day of the month, denoted by the standard three or four letter abbreviation
HR = Hour of the day in UTC time. This is the hour at which the forecast is valid, or if the forecast is valid for a period, the end of the forecast period.
N/X = nighttime minimum/daytime maximum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
POZ = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring at the hour.
POS = conditional probability of snow occurring at the hour.
TYP = conditional precipitation type at the hour.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
VIS = visibility categorical forecasts at the hour.
OBV = obstruction to vision categorical forecasts at the hour.

Definitions of Categorical Elements

QPF Categories
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Snow Fall Amount Categories
0	no snow or a trace expected
1	> a trace to < 2 inches
2	2 to < 4 inches
4	4 to < 6 inches
6	6 to < 8 inches
8	> = 8 inches

Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	< 1/2 miles
2	1/2 - < 1 miles
3	1 - < 2 miles
4	2 - < 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	> 6 miles

Ceiling Height (CIG) Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet

Cloud (CLD) Categories
CL	clear
FW	> 0 to 2 octas of total sky cover
SC	> 2 to 4 octas of total sky cover
BK	> 4 to < 8 octas of total sky cover
OV	8 octas of total sky cover or totally obscured

Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories
S	pure snow or snow grains
Z	freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or
	anything mixed with freezing precip
R	pure rain/drizzle or rain mixed with snow

MAV Obstruction to Vision (OBV) Categories
N	none of the following
HZ	haze, smoke, dust
BR	mist (fog with visibility >= 5/8 mile)
FG	fog or ground fog (visibility < 5/8 mile)
BL	blowing dust, sand, snow

MOS element descriptions and definitions are adapted from the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory's web site.

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