FXUS61 KILN 151412
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1012 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move slowly east across the Ohio
Valley today, which will continue the threat for occasional showers
and a chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures will gradually warm
through mid week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
continuing well into the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weakening mid level trough will move east across the mid Ohio
Valley today as a weak surface low/wave progresses east across far
southern Ohio. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will
become more widespread this afternoon into this evening in association
with this as we start to get some diurnal instability. With PWs up to
around 2 inches, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible again
this afternoon/evening, with the best chance for this and the
highest pops across our southeast. Highs today will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The frontal boundary will continue to push slowly southeast Sunday
night, bringing quiet weather, albeit potential for areas of fog/low
stratus in the very moist low layers. The trough axis pushes east
through the area, but the aforementioned surface boundary is aided by
yet another shortwave wrapping through the base of the trough and the
surface boundary buckles north of the Ohio River again. This will
bring a renewed chance of showers with embedded thunderstorms, though
with the weak upper level flow and negligible lapse rates, still not
much concern for severe storms. The main issue again will be slow
moving storms and efficient rainfall rates/warm rain processes
bringing isolated very heavy rain with some storms. Slightly warmer
daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday evening, an upper trough will be located in the middle
Mississippi Valley region, with a regime of warm and moist air ahead
of this trough -- extending into the Ohio Valley and the ILN
forecast area. As the trough moves slowly east Monday night into
Tuesday, a continued feed of southwesterly flow up through 850mb
will bring showers and thunderstorms into the area. The atmosphere
will be moist, but instability and shear are both forecast to be
weak, suggesting the severe threat will remain low for Monday night
and Tuesday. Some heavy rain will probably be possible.
Conditions will continue to become more warm and moist heading into
Wednesday, with deep-layer southwesterly flow advecting theta-e into
the region. With highs in the middle to upper 80s, and dewpoints in
the lower 70s, heat index values in the 90s are expected. As of now,
the forecast keeps things below the 100 degree advisory criteria,
but it may get close -- particularly in urban areas. The Wednesday
through Thursday time frame will also likely bring the greatest
chance for impactful thunderstorms. A shortwave and weak surface low
are expected to move into the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening,
bringing an increase in both forcing and wind shear into an
increasingly unstable air mass. While there are still some timing
and placement differences between models, the initial development of
organized convection is likely to occur upstream of the ILN CWA on
Wednesday afternoon. Chances for convection in the ILN CWA may be
maximized late in the day, or even overnight. Storms may continue
into Thursday, at least until a cold front moves through the region,
bringing a slight decrease in T/Td values and a reduction in
instability. In terms of the severe threat, conditions look
favorable for some severe weather at some point in the Wednesday
afternoon through early Thursday morning time frame. Depending on
the frontal timing, there could be an additional severe threat on
Thursday, though this may end up focused to the east of the ILN CWA.
For Friday and Saturday, high pressure will bring a respite from
storm chances. However, model trends suggest warmer conditions are
on the way for Saturday and beyond -- matching the CPC 6-10 day
temperature outlook, which is solidly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Nearly stationary surface frontal boundary remains draped just north
of the Ohio River, with a lumbering weak low still working it`s way
along the boundary. Showers rotating around the surface low, but not
currently mentioned at TAF locations as these will be spotty in
nature. A mix of IFR to LIFR CIGs, with the expectation of lifting to
MVFR in the 14-15z timeframe, though some uncertainty with timing of
ceiling improvements.
Renewed diurnal chances for showers with isolated thunderstorms,
continue to handle this via PROB30 mainly from 18-24z. Overall VFR
during this time except in any thunderstorms. After precipitation
diminishes, ample low level moisture will mean a return to IFR CIGS
after 05-06z, with the potential for MVFR VSBYs.
OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms possible through Wednesday,
causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities
into the week.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JDR
