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NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)

Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 262346
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          746 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023
          Slow moving low pressure will bring the threat for showers and
          thunderstorms beginning tonight and continuing Wednesday through
          Thursday. High pressure and dry air are forecast to return for
          the weekend.
          A weak surface low over Illinois driven by a closed upper low
          over Iowa is beginning to influence the weather over ILN.
          Moisture and lift increasing in the east to southeast low level flow
          ahead of the low are producing radar echoes to the west. Scattered
          showers and thunderstorms evident across Indiana are expected
          to move to western locations this evening before spreading
          farther east overnight. Mild overnight lows around 60 are
          forecast, supported by warm advection and increasing cloud
          The upper low is forecast to slowly fill in while it tracks to
          the Central Great Lakes. At the same time, the weak surface low
          translates to Southern Indiana. Increasing moisture, lift and
          instability in the circulation around the system will allow the
          threat for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the
          short term. Period of most widespread precipitation appears to
          coincide with peak heating Wednesday afternoon, with showers
          and storms slowly decreasing from west to east Wednesday
          evening. Strong storms will be possible, organized by
          relatively potent winds aloft in an environment containing
          around 1000 J/KG CAPE.
          Temperatures remain a bit above normal, with highs ranging from
          the lower 70s north to the upper 70s south, and lows falling to
          about 60.
          Upper low will be in the vicinity of northwest Ohio at the beginning
          of the period and continue to move east. This will result in showers
          and some thunderstorms persisting into Thursday and then moving off
          to the east and decreasing in coverage Thursday night. Clouds will
          start to decrease in western counties later Thursday but be slower
          to do so further east.
          Mid level ridge will then develop and become quite pronounced from
          the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Thus another
          extended period of dry weather with little cloud cover and above
          normal temperatures will occur from Saturday through the end of the
          Loosely-organized clusters of SHRA/TSRA will overspread SW sites
          of KCVG/KLUK through the first several hours of the TAF period,
          eventually nearing KDAY/KILN by/after 02z before weakening
          altogether with eastward extent. This activity will bring with
          it brief reductions in VSBYs in the heavier rates, along with
          several hours of TS (particularly near KCVG/KLUK).
          Although the primary band of SHRA/TSRA will weaken as it moves E
          through 06z, additional ISO/spotty SHRA should redevelop during
          the predawn hours near the Tri-State, eventually overspreading
          larger portions of the local area toward daybreak and beyond.
          This activity past 06z should be fairly spotty in nature, making
          it difficult to determine potential impact at one location or
          the other for any one time. On-and-off SHRA, with some TSRA
          potential as well, is on tap for the daytime period. Multiple
          narrow bands of activity will be possible, especially during the
          afternoon and evening. It won`t be a complete washout, but it
          is not likely to be completely dry, either. The main concern
          with any of this activity will be the sudden/abrupt reductions
          in VSBYs and potential for some gusty winds at times. However,
          this will be handled with amendments as needed.
          Some BR may lead to MVFR VSBY restrictions in the several hours
          around daybreak at KLUK/KILN, but the potential for lingering
          extensive cloud cover (even after 06z) lends itself to quite a
          bit of uncertainty regarding this potential. Light easterly
          winds will become more southeasterly during the daytime,
          generally staying at 10kts or less outside of convection.
          OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Thursday. MVFR
          conditions possible tonight and Thursday.
          NEAR TERM...Coniglio
          SHORT TERM...Coniglio
          LONG TERM...