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NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)
Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T
FXUS61 KILN 170607 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 107 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will bring periods of snow to the region tonight through Sunday night. Weak high pressure and drier conditions will build into the Ohio Valley for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cyclonic and northwesterly flow exists across the Ohio Valley around a deep mid level low centered over NY state. Axis of widespread snow pivoting thru the southern 2/3rds of ILN/s is a result of isentropic lift ahead of a surface trof. ILN has picked up 0.9 inches of snow thus far today, with the higher reports for the day around an inch. Best coverage of snow shifting to the east across the lower Scioto Valley. Also, fetch off Lake Michigan has enhanced more cellular development over West Central Ohio -- currently moving into portions of Central Ohio. Have increased pops and bumped up snow a few tenths of an inch across these locations thru about midnight. Road sensors indicate temperatures generally in the middle 30s, so most of the accumulation has been on grassy areas. Otherwise, overnight expect a transition to flurries or very light snow with little to no additional snow accumulation. Expect overnight lows in the upper 20s to around 30 overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Mid level ridging will shift east of our area through Sunday morning as a fast moving secondary mid level trough/low approaches from the west. This will then progress east across our area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. While low level lapse rates and the snow squall parameter do not appear quite as favorable as today, the better timing of the upper level energy should once again result in fairly widespread snow shower activity, especially from late morning through the afternoon. Will continue with likely pops for this during the day on Sunday and then taper things off through Sunday night as the upper level energy moves east. Temperatures will push into the low to possibly mid 30s through the day. Expect accumulations to generally be less than an inch. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Monday morning, a dampening shortwave trough will be moving east of the Ohio Valley, as the flow pattern turns more progressive heading into Tuesday -- with several quick but largely inconsequential changes from warm advection to cold advection. While lift will be weakening after the axis of the trough is through the area on Monday morning, continuing cold advection may still allow for some flurries in central Ohio. A dry forecast is expected for the rest of Monday, with a very weak shortwave perhaps bringing some light snow to the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Deterministic models remain very limited in terms of QPF production, but the pattern supports light precipitation, so a 20-PoP will be maintained across the entirety of the CWA to account for the possibility. A period of warm advection aloft will likely lead to the next chance of precipitation on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, ahead of yet another frontal boundary. This may also lead to non-diurnal warming temperatures going into Thursday morning, with continued warming during the day. 12Z models are then fairly aggressive, and in fairly good agreement, on a significant system developing in the southern stream on Thursday night and Friday -- and largely missing the ILN CWA to the south. This is not a certainty, as several GEFS members do show precipitation reaching this far north. However, the majority of them show little to no precipitation during this time frame. PoPs were adjusted downward after the initial shot of warm advection precipitation early Thursday, keeping some chance in for the southern sections of the ILN CWA through Thursday night to account for uncertainty. High pressure, initially over the northern plains, will then move into the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday. This will likely bring dry and cooler conditions to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Considerable status/stratocumulus clouds remain in the wake of departing weather system to our east. Thus, for the overnight period, aviators can expect MVFR and IFR ceilings with perhaps a few light flurries. For today, an upper level low over the middle Mississippi River Valley will move east into the Ohio Valley. Dynamic lift and some weak WAA aloft will first spread snow east/northeast across the terminals late this morning into the first part of the afternoon. Then, with some diurnal heating, some of the precipitation will become showery in nature, especially along and south of the Ohio River. During this period, aviators can expect MVFR and IFR conditions with snow. For tonight, the upper level low will begin to move east of the region. Scattered snow showers in the evening will diminish from west to east overnight. Ceilings will remain in the MVFR and IFR category with pockets of MVFR/IFR visibilities possible in snow showers. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible into Monday. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday. MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman
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