NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 010854
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          354 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          High pressure will move across the area today and head off to
          the east tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on
          Friday and Friday night and pass across the area Saturday
          morning. Another high will build in Saturday night into Sunday.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
          High pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley early
          this morning will build into the area today. Extensive cirrus
          shield will move into the region during the afternoon.
          Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the mid 30s to
          lower 40s.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
          High pressure will move off to the east tonight. Pressure
          gradient will start to increase in the latter half of the night.
          The cirrus will move off by early evening although some mid
          clouds may linger. Expect early lows with temperatures rising
          later at night.
          
          Pressure gradient will strengthen further during the day as a
          cold front start to approach from the west. There will be some
          gusts, but mixing depth will be rather limited. Plus clouds will
          be increasing in the afternoon. Highs will rebound into the
          upper 40s to mid 50s.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
          Mild, breezy conditions continue on Friday night into Saturday
          morning as a cold front associated with a deepening low in the
          northern Great Lakes approaches from the west. Increasing cloud
          cover will accompany the surge of high theta e air eventually
          allowing for increasing chances for precipitation ahead of the front
          through the overnight/early morning. A roaring 50+ knot low level
          jet also accompanies the surging warm air on Friday night/Saturday
          morning. This jet could lead to some potential for wind gusts over
          40 mph if showers mix down some of the higher momentum air a couple
          thousand feet off the ground.
          
          FROPA is expected to occur from west to east from about 8am through
          the early afternoon bringing an end to most precipitation chances.
          Temperatures drop back into the 30s behind the front through the day
          (non-diurnal temperature trace) in the strong CAA regime. Westerly
          winds may actually increase for a brief period after FROPA since
          more downward momentum transfer can be expected in the area with
          strong CAA and pressure rises. Wind gusts upwards of 40 mph are most
          likely to occur along and north of I-70, but are possible almost
          anywhere on Saturday just behind the front.
          
          Quiet weather moves into the region for Sunday through Monday with
          surface high pressure progressing from west to east. Temperates
          start off fairly chilly east of the high on Sunday, but slowly
          moderate through Monday/Tuesday as the high shifts east and
          southerly flow returns.
          
          The next chance for precipitation then looks to arrive around the
          middle of next week with another low after the high moves east.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
          VFR will prevail through the period. A cirrus deck will move
          across the region during the day. Some mid clouds will be
          possible late in the period. Winds will continue to gradually
          decrease. Beyond 12Z winds will be less than 10 kt and back to
          the south during the day and even become southeasterly late.
          
          OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are likely, with MVFR visibilities
          possible, Friday night into Saturday. Gusty winds to around 30
          kt are also possible during this time period.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...
          NEAR TERM...
          SHORT TERM...
          LONG TERM...Campbell
          AVIATION...
          
          
Skew-T

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