NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 282346
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          646 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          High pressure will provide dry and very cold weather tonight and
          Saturday. Temperatures warm late in the weekend through early
          next week before the next low pressure area brings precipitation
          starting Wednesday.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
          Area of snow over central and southern reaches of CWA will
          continue to produce about 3/4"/hr snowfall rates this early
          evening. Temperatures were running a little cold compared to
          immediate forecast so blended the mesoscale models with a
          reasonable forecast and ran that through the overnight period.
          This lowered some min temps over southern CWA.
          
          Cloud cover is lifting over northern sections but a light snow
          is still falling for most of the area. This will trend downward
          this evening from north to south as the region is already
          worked over and the moisture gets wrung out from ongoing snow.
          
          Low pressure pulls away from the Ohio Valley tonight as high
          pressure begins to build in from the west. Low temperatures will
          be coldest in the north, likely reaching a few degrees subzero
          in west central Ohio where skies clear earliest. However, based
          on lingering northerly winds behind the departing high,
          expecting the lowest wind chills in central Ohio... so have
          issued a wind chill advisory there. Elsewhere, temperatures
          generally drop into the single digits above zero.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
          High pressure builds across the region on Saturday, then shifts
          to the east Saturday night. Fair skies and single digit
          dewpoints will be the rule during the day in the center of the
          modified Arctic air mass. The next weak and generally dry front
          drops southeast from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
          Saturday night, causing an increase in clouds. Surface winds
          turn southerly on the back side of the high, so low temperatures
          will be a little less frigid: ranging from the single digits in
          central Ohio to the mid teens in the Tri-State region.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
          Northwest flow with a weak low forecast to drop southeast across the
          area Sunday. With a dry boundary layer and the best chance for snow
          showers to our northeast, will continue with a dry forecast.
          Temperatures to slowly moderate with highs Sunday from the upper 20s
          north to the upper 30s south.
          
          Dry conditions expected to continue into Monday into the first part
          of Tuesday with broad mid level ridge building across the area.
          Temperatures warm closer to normal with highs on Monday from near 30
          north to the lower 40s south and then above normal Tuesday with
          highs from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s south.
          
          Split flow with northern stream shortwave causing a front to slip
          into the area later Tuesday -- stalling out parallel to the
          southwesterly mid level flow. Model trends farther east with this
          front and therefore colder with temperatures. Will bring in
          rain/snow mix changing to snow northwest and all rain southeast
          Tuesday night.
          
          Mid level flow backs southwesterly over the Ohio Valley as flow
          phases and trof develops over the nations mid section. Moisture
          increases with a surface wave ejecting northeast thru the Ohio
          Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. A mix of rain and snow over the
          northwest and rain southeast will transition to all snow sometime
          Thursday. At this time frame there is the expected uncertainty
          regarding the exact placement and timing of of the front, thermal
          profiles and therefore precipitation type. The potential exists for
          accumulating winter pcpn Wednesday night into Thursday with the
          details to be determined as we get closer to the event.
          
          Mean mid level trof to settle into the Great Lakes with another
          Arctic high building in for the end of next week into the weekend.
          This will offer dry weather with single digit above and below zero
          temperatures likely Friday night.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
          A broad mix of MVFR cigs that are trending to VFR even as MVFR
          snow is falling can be found across the region this evening.
          Expect to gradually replace any lower cigs with VFR ceilings
          within the next 2-4 hours under a brisk north wind 12-14kt.
          Winds will lighten after this and any lingering snow will be VFR
          and be very scattered in nature.
          
          Winds gradually decrease through the night and then back to nw
          and eventually w as they end up around 5-8kt during the day
          Saturday.
          
          
          OUTLOOK... No significant weather expected.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ026-
               035-043>046-051>056-065.
          KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
               KYZ089>091-094-095.
          IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
               INZ058-066-073>075-080.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...
          NEAR TERM...Franks
          SHORT TERM...
          LONG TERM...AR
          AVIATION...Franks
          
          
Skew-T

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