NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 110258
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          1058 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          Yet another cold front dropping into the area may produce a
          shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, though any precipitation
          should be scattered to isolated. Drier and less humid
          conditions arrive Thursday night into the weekend as high
          pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
          Showers and thunderstorms pulling out of the area, with just a
          few lingering in the far southeast. Skies clearing through all
          but right near and south of the Ohio River. Some areas already
          getting some slight drops in visibility, so the potential for
          fairly dense valley fog is still there, with lesser visibility
          restrictions elsewhere. Will have to monitor for potential fog
          product issuance especially in the south and east, but at this
          time, not expecting anything more than patchy fog below 0.25
          mile and areas of fog at 0.5 mi or more.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
          A mid-level trough moving in through the Great Lakes pushes any
          remaining deep moisture into the Southeast US. A secondary
          front associated with the trough quickly slides through the
          Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley throughout the day. While the
          overall atmosphere is much drier, sufficient moisture
          convergence along the front will allow for a few scattered
          showers and isolated thunderstorm to form, primarily during the
          afternoon and early evening. This band of precipitation will
          move south throughout the day before decrease in coverage late.
          
          Surface high pressure builds in overnight with cooler
          temperatures occurring into Friday morning. Some river valley
          fog is possible but drier air should prevent widespread fog.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
          Cool and dry conditions will be in place to start out the long term
          on Friday.  With CAA expect cu to develop.  Another dry day is
          expected for Saturday.  Temperatures are expected to be a little
          warmer, however still expect below normal temperatures for Saturday.
          
          A more unsettled pattern starts to move into the region beginning
          Saturday night.  The unsettled weather pattern will keep off and on
          precipitation chances in the forecast through Tuesday before dry
          conditions return for Wednesday.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
          Frontal boundary has cleared all TAF locations, with clearing
          slowly moving in. With recent shower and lingering low level
          moisture and light winds, KLUK/KILN have potential for MVFR to
          IFR conditions, with MVFR possible at KCVG/KLCK.
          
          A secondary cold front with minimal forcing and moisture to work
          with will bring scattered VFR cumulus in the 18z-02z timeframe,
          and while SHRA possible in this window, not expected to be
          widespread/so chances to impact TAF locations are low.
          
          OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...JDR
          NEAR TERM...JDR
          SHORT TERM...McGinnis
          LONG TERM...Novak
          AVIATION...JDR
          
          
Skew-T

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