NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)
Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T
FXUS61 KILN 261431 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1031 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure to offer a dry weather today. Several chances for light rain return tonight through Tuesday. High pressure will then provide drier weather Wednesday and Thursday before a warmer and wetter pattern develops by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Westerly mid level flow with weak surface high pressure centered over the area this morning shifting off to the east today. A weakening, progressive mid level shortwave over the Mid MS Valley to track thru the area overnight into Monday. Low levels are dry and model trends are slower with any pcpn. Have continued to keep the daylight hours dry with pcpn developing by late evening into the northwest. Expect mainly sunny skies this morning with high level clouds spilling in from the west this afternoon ahead of the next system. Abundant sunshine and light southerly surface winds will aid temperatures topping out from the upper 50s north to mid 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As alluded to above, a weakening loosely-organized band of SHRA/TSRA will move into EC IN/WC OH after dark, with additional development of SHRA across the local area past midnight on the backside of the departing sfc wave. Rainfall of generally less than 1/4" is expected tonight into Monday morning, with the heaviest activity likely to focus near the I-71 corridor during the predawn hours. The light rain will depart to the E through mid-morning, with weak CAA/NW sfc flow becoming established through the day Monday. The combination of increased cloud cover and pcpn should keep temps tonight /relatively/ warmer, with lows ranging from around 40 degrees in WC OH to the upper 40s in N KY. The cloud cover should hang tight through most of the day Monday, meaning that temps may only rebound 6-8 degrees or so by the afternoon, topping out in the mid 40s (WC OH) to mid 50s (N/NE KY). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Quasi-zonal flow is in place synoptically at the start of the period, with multiple shortwave impulses traversing through the larger flow. Guidance is notoriously poor at handling these types of impulses, so confidence in exact timing remains low. With this being said, remnants from the first impulse will likely be moving out of the region at the start of the extended, with some lingering light showers in the far southeast. Overnight lows into Tuesday morning bottom out in the 30s area wide. Another impulse moves by on Tuesday, but lowest levels seem reasonably dry, so any precipitation that falls may not make it down to the surface. Highs on Tuesday around climatological norms, in the upper 40s/low 50s. High pressure and weak ridging build in mid-week, drying us out and setting the stage for a warming trend- expecting end of week high temperatures to be in the upper 50s or even 60s as southerly flow takes over on the backside of the high. End of the week into the weekend is looking wet.... long range guidance suggests a H5 wave moving eastward over CONUS off of the coast of California with its associated surface low eventually redeveloping off the leeward side of the Rockies. Still a bit far out for any specifics, but definitely will be something to watch as we get closer. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Aside from a few passing cirrus from time-to-time, mainly clear skies will prevail through 00z, after which midlevel clouds will increase from the W late in the evening. Thickening cloud cover will evolve from W to E between 00z-06z, with a weakening band of ISO/SCT SHRA forecast to move into the area after 03z or so. KDAY may get a stray SHRA from this initial activity before it slowly merges with additional RA development that will take place after 06z. Light RA will overspread the local area between 08z-15z Monday before drier conditions evolve toward end of KCVG 30-hr TAF. Although this activity should be primarily light in nature, some brief MVFR VSBYs cannot be completely ruled out. CIGs will transition from VFR to MVFR around 12z Monday, with MVFR CIGs lingering through most of the daytime. Light southerly winds around 6-8kts today will become more light/VRB between 00z-09z before becoming more out of the NW at around 10-12kts toward 12z Monday behind the departing system. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are expected, with IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs possible, late tonight into early Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...KC
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