FXUS61 KILN 270834
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          434 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          A warm front will pivot north through the region offering a
          chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly this morning. Warmer
          temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected for the
          remainder of the weekend. A chance for showers and storms will
          return Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches and moves
          through the region. After a brief dry period of weather at mid
          week, an active wet period of weather will develop later
          Wednesday through the end of the week.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
          Amplified mid level flow with negatively tilted shortwave
          lifting from the Upper MS Valley across the western Great Lakes
          today. H8 45-50 kt southerly jet to pivot thru the Great Lakes
          this morning offering some favorable forcing and low level
          moisture advection. This will offer the threat for isold/scattered
          showers and thunderstorms with the best coverage across west
          central Ohio early.
          
          Warm front to pivot north early - placing the entire ILN forecast
          area in the warm sector. After the early morning activity any
          forcing will be very limited. Any isolated convective activity
          that does develop looks to be closer to the stronger
          mid level flow, across the far northwest.
          
          Pressure gradient increases and with a well mixed boundary
          layer southerly winds will gust up to 30-35 mph.
          
          In warm advection pattern temperatures to rise to highs in the
          upper 70s to lower 80s.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
          Mid level ridge builds north into the southern Great Lakes for
          the end of the weekend. Can not rule out an isold shower or
          thunderstorm across the far northwest this evening - otherwise
          expect dry conditions overnight. Southerly winds stay up around
          10 mph with mild lows generally in the lower 60s.
          
          Firmly established in the warm sector Sunday - with a lack of
          forcing do not expect widespread pcpn. Temperatures to warm to
          highs generally in the lower 80s. These readings are 10 to 15
          degrees above normal.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
          Mean H5 ridge axis begins to shift east of us Sunday night as a
          shortwave barrels through the Central Plains region. Another
          seasonably warm day expected on Monday underneath this ridge, but we
          will begin to observe an increase in clouds and eventually a notable
          increase in PoPs with the approaching shortwave. This shortwave
          feature and associated cold front will be fairly progressive as it
          swings through Monday night into the early part of Tuesday. This
          will limit the QPF footprint across our CWA, but 0.25" - 0.5" still
          plausible.
          
          Temperatures slightly moderate on Tuesday, but highs are only a few
          degrees cooler given the weak cold frontal boundary. Some rain
          showers may linger into the early part of Tuesday before shifting
          eastward. By Wednesday, weak ridging will build back in over the
          Midwest, promoting drier conditions at the surface. However, warm
          and relatively humid conditions will be observed, which will
          continue into Thursday.
          
          Model uncertainty grows as we near the end of the work week. There
          is some resemblance of a shortwave trough that will influence the
          weather pattern across the Ohio Valley. This will increases chances
          for precip, but will have to see how model guidance trends over the
          next few runs.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
          Amplified mid level flow with negatively tilted shortwave
          lifting from the Upper MS Valley across the western Great Lakes
          today. H8 45-50 kt southerly jet to pivot thru the Great Lakes
          this morning offering some favorable forcing and a period of low
          level wind shear. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms
          to remain northwest of the TAF sites. Have handled this threat
          with a mention of VCSH at the northern TAF sites.
          
          Warm front to pivot north into the Great Lakes with the TAF
          sites in the warm sector today. Mid level ceilings this morning
          will decrease in coverage as the warm front pivots north of the
          area. Additional shower or thunderstorm development is expected
          to remain north of the TAF sites today.
          
          Southerly winds around 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts at times
          today and then up to 20 kts tonight.
          
          OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Monday,
          Tuesday, and Wednesday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...AR
          NEAR TERM...AR
          SHORT TERM...AR
          LONG TERM...Clark
          AVIATION...AR