FXUS61 KILN 290232 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1032 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slip east this evening, allowing a warmer and more humid airmass to work into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage beginning Thursday, mainly for the northern part of our region. The rest of the area will see more shower and thunderstorm activity by late week and lasting through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure slid off to the east this evening with southerly flow returning across the region. Thursday afternoon southwesterly flow will increase as the pressure gradient increases. With the return flow kicking back in dewpoints and high temperatures will be on the rise. Highs will be back in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. A weak boundary will dip into our northern zones late Thursday and will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development. As of current it looks like most of the development will initially occur just north of the CWA and slowly sag southwards. Prev Discussion-> Dry conditions are expected through the overnight hours. Some mid and high clouds will move across the region. In addition a few cu will be possible this afternoon. Went close to guidance for low temperatures overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions will start out the short term, however as moisture increases a few pop up showers or storms will be possible across southeastern portions of the region southeast of Interstate 71. In addition, a frontal boundary will approach from the northwest bringing thunderstorm chances to primarily extreme northwestern portions of the forecast area. The severe threat appears minimal across the region, however cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind gust across far northwestern portions of the forecast area closer to the front and where there is better instability. Most of this activity looks as though it would hold off until more of the evening hours and then decrease by Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will sag down toward the area through the day on Friday. As we destabilize through the afternoon, this will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance across northwest portions of our area. With the slow movement of the front, will nudge up highs a tad for Friday, generally into the middle 80s. The front will continue to push southeast Friday night into Saturday as it weakens and stalls out across our area. This will result in some better chances for showers and thunderstorms later Friday night and through the day on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be somewhat dependent on the placement of the front and the amount of pcpn but should mainly be in the lower 80s. The boundary will continue to wash out through the day on Sunday but it may still lead to an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. We should then dry out Sunday night into Monday. However, several mid level short waves will push east across the area through mid week. This will lead to additional chances of showers and thunderstorms at times through the remainder of the long term period. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure that was in control this afternoon will continue to slowly pull east this evening. Overnight an upper level disturbance will skirt north of the area with most of the area staying dry. Thursday morning the low level pressure gradient begins to strengthen with 40kts possible at 2kft. The threat appears to be mainly contained in the 6z and 12z time frame and more contained towards KDAY. Thursday afternoon VFR conditions will continue with the TAF sites being in between high pressure off to the east and low pressure to the northwest. This gradient will allow for wind gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range (supported by GFS/ NAM momentum transfer). OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Thursday night through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines
