NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

FXUS61 KILN 191505
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1005 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cold Arctic air moving across the Great Lakes will bring scattered snow showers and flurries to the region today. High pressure will slowly build into the area through mid week. Very cold temperatures to start the week will gradually moderate and the become above normal by Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue for the remainder of the morning in a regime that features shallow instability in the cloud layer. For this afternoon, clouds will continue, but withe a relaxing of the CAA, we should see flurries instead of snow showers. It will be brisk with high temperatures ranging from the upper teens north to the mid 20s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Surface high center will remain west of the area through the period, but the pressure gradient will be relaxing. Low clouds will decrease overnight and completely diminish by Monday morning. Some mid to high clouds could push into the area on Monday as a short wave passes west of the region. Temperatures will generally be in the teens tonight and then get into the mid 20s to lower 30s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build west of the region and upper level energy will pass south and away from the area, resulting in a general clearing sky cover and light wind to permit a nice night of radiational cooling and temperatures in the middle teens, possibly lower if skies clear earlier in the evening. Sunshine and light winds Tuesday will permit highs to increase slightly, but another night of cooling is in the offing for daybreak Wednesday as the center of the surface high tracks through the CWA overnight. Lows near 20 may also need to be adjusted downwards if favorable conditions are present for the bulk of the overnight period. Wednesday will begin the warming trend that will continue through the end of the week, and possibly into Saturday. The biggest gains of 8-10 degrees from earlier maxima and minima will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as the flow turns southerly and some mid level clouds stream in on the back side of the eastward moving upper level ridge. Clouds will increase for the latter part of the week into the weekend as strong low pressure in the plains ushers in warmer air on southerly flow. Temperatures will continue to rise - most notably in overnight lows - but be inhibited from getting much if any warmer than Thursday due to cloud cover. Rain chances will increase on Friday and peak overnight. A cold front will cross during the day Saturday, but models continue to disagree in the form, strength, and placement of the upper level and subsequent surface low pressure centers. European came in line with the closed low the GFS was showing yesterday, but now appears to be bombing out a stacked low pressure system near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers on Friday and tracking it roughly eastward through Saturday. The GFS continues to eject the surface low ahead of the upper low from the midwest into the Great Lakes region during this same time frame with more of a baroclinic leaf system evolving into a nice comma cloud east of the Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday. Time will tell and forecast was limited to 50 pops and a cooling period Sat night and Sun. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally MVFR ceilings will prevail through much of the period, although there will be some breaks in the lower clouds allowing for a temporary improvement to VFR. Late in the TAF period clouds may start to scatter from north to south. Gusty west winds will slowly diminish through the period and veer to northwest after 00Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...
Skew-T

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