NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 241857
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          257 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          A brief respite in the heat and humidity today, before warmer
          and more humid air quickly builds back into the region on
          Tuesday. Chance for storms returns Tuesday and increases
          Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Drier and cooler
          conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek
          before heat and humidity build back for this weekend.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
          Mid level trof over New England with a ridge over the Plains -
          placing the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley in northwest flow with
          surface surface high pressure over the area this afternoon.
          
          Drier air continues to be advected into the region from the
          north with surface dewpoints dropping to between 55 and 60 by
          late day. Scattered fair weather cumulus clouds will dissipate
          with the loss of daytime heating leaving clear skies this
          evening.
          
          A thunderstorm complex will develop in response to a low level
          jet and favorable moistures advection across the Great Lakes
          ahead of a mid level shortwave. This thunderstorm complex to our
          northwest will weaken allowing some debris mid and high level
          clouds to spill in late tonight into Tuesday morning.
          
          Low temperatures to range from near 60 east to the mid/upper 60s
          northwest.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
          Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
          Tuesday. Moisture to return in response to low level jet with an
          increase in higher theta-e air nosing in from the W toward
          Tuesday morning. Weakening MCS to track into West Central Ohio
          early Tuesday. As this complex encounters an unfavorable
          environment expect it to decay and fall apart leaving a good
          deal of debris clouds. As the airmass recovers expect moderate
          instability to develop later Tuesday afternoon - especially
          along and northwest of I-71. With a high degrees of uncertainty
          have kept pops in the chance category with the highest pops
          across West Central Ohio. High temperatures to range from the
          upper 80s to the lower 90s.
          
          Models solutions support a low level jet of 40-45 kts with
          moderate instability in place ahead of a shortwave embedded in
          the westerly mid level flow. Expect storm chances to increase
          as we head into Tuesday night and spread south and east across
          ILN/s area. Given instability and shear the potential exists for
          strong to severe storms with damaging winds being the primary
          threat late in the day into Tuesday night. ML from CSU and SPC
          outlooks highlight this threat generally along and northwest of
          I-71. In the moist airmass locally heavy rain will also be a
          threat. Mild lows generally in the lower 70s by Wednesday
          morning.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
          For Wednesday, a surface boundary in phase with an upper trough and
          short wave energy will push into an unstable airmass, bringing
          widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to
          severe, with damaging winds the main threat, along with heavy rain.
          A dry interlude is suggested for Thursday and Friday when high
          pressure is forecast to track across the Great Lakes. A cold front
          may bring another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into
          Sunday. Dry weather returns Monday with high pressure.
          
          Temperature fluctuations will be evident with respect to frontal
          position and associated clouds and precipitation. Highs ranging
          through the 80s on Wednesday near the initial cold front will slip
          to the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday in modest cold advection behind
          the front. Warm advection and insolation associated with the high
          will help boost readings to around 90 on Friday. Further warm
          advection just ahead of the next front may bring highs up into the
          90s for Saturday. A reduction back to the 80s is expected for Sunday
          and Monday behind the front.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
          Drier and tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue
          today as high pressure becomes centered over the Ohio Valley.
          Scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds have develop between
          4000 and 5000 feet. These clouds will dissipate with the loss of
          heating early this evening leaving mainly clear sky conditions.
          
          A weakening/decaying thunderstorm complex to our northwest will
          allow some debris clouds to spill in late tonight into Tuesday
          morning. Additional thunderstorm development is likely Tuesday
          with the best chance/threat north of the TAF sites thru 18Z.
          The thunderstorm threat shifts south and will likely impact the
          TAF sites Tuesday night. Will mention this threat in the
          outlook period.
          
          Expect generally VFR conditions to continue overnight into
          Tuesday. Can not rule out a brief period of MVFR vsby
          restriction at KLUK valley location but with drier air over the
          area have elected to omit the mention in the forecast.
          
          North-northwest winds around 8 kts this afternoon become light
          and variable this evening and then southerly early Tuesday -
          increasing to 10-15kts with gusts of 20-25 kts Tuesday
          afternoon.
          
          
          OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...AR
          NEAR TERM...AR
          SHORT TERM...AR
          LONG TERM...Coniglio
          AVIATION...AR
          
          
          
Skew-T

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