FXUS61 KILN 261143
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
743 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will bring a chance for showers today. Warmer
temperatures along with showers and a chance of thunderstorms will
arrive later Thursday into Friday as a warm front pivots north
through the area. A wet weather pattern will continue this weekend
with a good threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday as cold front
approaches and moves through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quick update for morning fog. Overnight rain, low level CAA and
light winds has led to the development of fog this morning. Nighttime
microphysics imagery, surface observations, and web cams shows dense
fog from Franklin County Indiana thru the Cincinnati metro area -
along and north of the Ohio River to Scioto County in south central
Ohio. Have issued a dense fog advisory through mid morning to
message this impact for the morning commute.
Previous Discussion...
Main weather story this morning is an isolated area of fog, along
with locally dense fog, occurring across portions of
eastern/southeastern Indiana and portions of southwest Ohio north of
Cincinnati. Elsewhere across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio,
valley fog is occurring. An SPS was issued, focused across the areas
where locally dense fog is occurring outside of river valleys. Some
improvement will be possible toward sunrise as mid-level clouds
increase ahead of an approaching shortwave.
This shortwave provides the chance for showers later this morning and
then during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen. The focus
area for these showers is expected from roughly eastern Indiana to
southern Ohio, including additional areas around Cincinnati. This
activity weakens after sunset leaving partly cloudy skies heading
into the overnight.
Given the presence of the trough and the cloud cover, temperatures
are once again near to slight below normal for late March.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
While the more dominant trough finally begins to shift away from the
area, the region broadly remains stuck in mid to upper level
northwesterly flow. Closer the surface, Rocky Mountain lee-side
cyclogenesis is forecast to continue over the central Plains. This
will support isentropic lift over the lower Midwest Thursday. A weak
system moving within the northwest flow enhances broad scale lift
Thursday morning into the afternoon leading to increasing chances for
rain throughout the day. Highest confidence in rainfall Thursday
afternoon is across eastern Indiana, southwest Ohio, and northern
Kentucky. This activity shifts southward toward the evening, but
lingering, more scattered showers will continue to the north.
Due to the earlier arrival of thicker clouds and rainfall,
temperatures across the far western portions of the area (eastern
Indiana and western Ohio) are the coolest spots. Furthest away from
the initial action, portions of southern Ohio and northern Kentucky
still have a chance to reach the 60 degree mark before the rain
moves in.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers may be still ongoing across southern counties to
start the period but will be on the decrease. However, as a short
wave tracks eastwards late Thursday night into Friday and a warm
front lifts north, showers will increase in coverage once again and
push north and east across the region.
Temperatures will then be well above normal and moisture will stream
into the region on robust southerly flow that will tap Gulf
moisture. An initial short wave will be weakening as it lifts
northeast out of the mid South and into the Great Lakes. This will
bring showers across the forecast area Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.
The next system will be moving east out of the central Plains on
Sunday and cross the region Sunday night into Monday. There does
appear to be a weak impulse ahead of this trough that will cross the
area possibly Sunday afternoon and evening. There remain plenty of
questions how much instability may develop into the area, especially
if there are few breaks in the clouds that will be lingering from the
Saturday night system, which is what much of the data suggests at
this point in time. So for now, will just continue to keep a keen eye
on how this evolves with subsequent model runs.
Cold front will move through early Monday with the potential for
some showers to linger in the wake of the frontal passage. High
pressure will build in Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will
drop back to a bit below normal for the early part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG did ultimately spread throughout the early morning hours with
any lingering fog clearing between 12-14Z.
Then, winds will increase out of northwest with scattered mid level
clouds. Showers are still anticipated later this afternoon for
DAY/ILN/LUK/CVG. With dry conditions, CMH/LCK have the best chance of
seeing wind gusts potentially up to 20 knots.
After 00Z, winds calm and become variable. Winds will switch
direction on Thursday, becoming southerly. Another system approaches
after 12Z, with additional rain chances occurring during the day.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday night through
Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ070>072-
077>082-088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ091>093-100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ066-074-075.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis/AR
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis
