NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 250758
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          358 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley today bringing a
          period of cloudy skies and a chance for showers in the morning.
          Skies clear behind the front this afternoon into tonight as
          surface high pressure builds into the region. This high will
          offer dry weather with temperatures closer to normal. Dry
          weather will continue with a warming trend early next week.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
          Progressive mid level trof to pivot through the Great Lakes
          today. Southerly low level jet of 30 to 35 kts to weaken as it
          pivots thru the area this morning. Forcing will max out to the
          west and then weaken with weakening dynamics. Associated
          surface cold front to move into western Ohio around 12Z and
          through central Ohio by 18Z. A ribbon of rain showers will
          develop across the west and then push east and diminish in
          coverage due to the weakening forcing. Have categorical pops in
          the west early -- decreasing to chance category before ending
          in the far east early this aftn. Forecast soundings do
          not show favorable instability, so have omitted any mention of
          thunder.
          
          Winds will shift from the southwest to the west behind the cold
          front with skies clearing this afternoon. Cooler temperatures
          with highs in the upper 60s today.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
          Northwest mid and upper level flow with surface high pressure
          building into the region tonight. Expect light winds, clear
          skies, and cool temperatures. Tonight`s lows to range from the
          mid to the upper 40s.
          
          Abundant sunshine in store for Sunday as the center of surface
          high pressure passes thru the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures
          closer to normal with highs in the lower 70s.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
          Extended period begins Sunday night and Monday with the local area
          under mid-level northwest flow between ridging over the high plains
          and mean troughing over the east coast. Surface high pressure will
          be centered to the southeast over the Carolinas, with return flow on
          the back side of the high providing above normal temperatures and
          dewpoints lifting into the upper 50s by Monday afternoon.
          
          By Monday night into Tuesday, a weak shortwave will push through the
          Great Lakes. This wave will allow a weak surface front to shift east
          through the Ohio Valley. Ensemble guidance is painting a chance of
          showers from New England back into central Ohio during this period.
          Without a stronger signal for rain, have kept things dry for now.
          
          Heading into mid to late week, surface high pressure builds into the
          upper Great Lakes while the high plains ridge builds east into the
          Mississippi Valley. This allows for the return of dry weather and
          seasonably warm temperatures to close the period.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
          Progressive mid level trof to pivot through the Great Lakes
          today. Southerly low level jet of 30 to 35 kts to weaken as it
          pivots thru the area this morning. Associated surface cold front
          to move into western Ohio around 12Z and through central Ohio by
          18Z. A ribbon of rain showers will develop into the western TAF
          sites early this morning and then push east and diminish in
          coverage due to weakening forcing. Mid and upper level clouds
          increase early this morning with a 2 to 4 hour period of MVFR
          CIGs between 14Z and 20Z from west to east.
          
          Clouds will scatter out behind the front with westerly winds
          around 10 knots. VFR conditions are then expected overnight
          as high pressure builds into the region.
          
          OUTLOOK... No significant restrictions expected.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...AR
          NEAR TERM...AR
          SHORT TERM...AR
          LONG TERM...Hogue
          AVIATION...AR
          
          
Skew-T

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