FXUS61 KILN 031048
          AFDILN
          
          Area Forecast Discussion
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          648 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
          
          .WHAT HAS CHANGED...
          No significant changes.
          
          &&
          
          .KEY MESSAGES...
          1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday as
          temperatures gradually moderate. A chance for showers and
          thunderstorms will return over the weekend.
          
          &&
          
          .DISCUSSION...
          KEY MESSAGE 1)
          
          Surface high pressure shifts southward today, moving directly over
          the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions will continue, but winds will be
          weaker due to the placement of the high pressure. Temperatures warm a
          few degrees from yesterday`s high temps, with the area in the upper
          70s and lower 80s.
          
          Shifting into Thursday, the center of the high pressure is far enough
          south to support a return to southwesterly surface flow. Deeper
          moisture is a bit slower to return, but area wide temperatures are
          now comfortably into the 80s as the warm up continues. Dry
          conditions are now expected through Friday due to the slower arrival
          of the trough digging into the Great Lakes. The delayed arrival
          prevents deeper moisture from reaching the local area, decreasing
          the potential for sufficient instability.
          
          This changes on Saturday as southwesterly flow ushers in better
          surface moisture. Dew points are much closer to the mid 60s, and
          forecast soundings indicate there will be enough to generate some
          thunderstorm potential. The main question for Saturday is timing. For
          northwest portions of the area (west-central Ohio, east-central
          Indiana), any lingering outflow boundaries from thunderstorms Friday
          night would result in a better chance for early afternoon
          thunderstorms on Saturday. Otherwise, new thunderstorm development
          would likely take place late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening
          as the trough moves through. Thunderstorms may not reach the Ohio
          River area until late in the evening if the later timing prevails.
          The trough is not very impressive so the advancement of the cold
          front southward through the area Saturday night would be slow. This
          will set the stage for renewed thunderstorm chances, mainly south of
          I-70, for Sunday afternoon. Much of this activity may be along and
          south of the Ohio River if some of the more aggressive solutions pan
          out. Severe weather and flash flood potential are quite low with this
          system. Wind flows are quite weak and PWAT values are not overly
          concerning. A stalled front south of the river could result in some
          slow moving thunderstorms, but predictability is still quite low.
          
          Into early next week, the main theme is a returning ridge over the
          Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a stalled front stretching from the
          middle Mississippi Valley through Tennessee and into the Mid-
          Atlantic. Based on the latest cluster analysis, there is at least
          some chance of a cut-off low retrograding westward into the Ohio
          Valley. This outcome is observed most across the GEFS members, but
          there are also some ECWMF ENS members that suggest this scenario.
          Until confidence increases, expect some changes in the forecast for
          early next week.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
          VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period.
          
          Surface high pressure moves southward out of the Great Lakes late
          Wednesday. Easterly winds initially between 5 and 8 knots this
          afternoon will go light and variable tonight.
          
          Starting Thursday, winds become predominately southerly to
          southwesterly but are less than 10 knots. Winds increase above 10
          knots Friday with gusts between 20-25 knots.
          
          OUTLOOK...There is a chance for thunderstorms both Saturday and
          Sunday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          
          DISCUSSION...McGinnis
          AVIATION...McGinnis