FXUS61 KILN 282346
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and very cold weather tonight and
Saturday. Temperatures warm late in the weekend through early
next week before the next low pressure area brings precipitation
starting Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Area of snow over central and southern reaches of CWA will
continue to produce about 3/4"/hr snowfall rates this early
evening. Temperatures were running a little cold compared to
immediate forecast so blended the mesoscale models with a
reasonable forecast and ran that through the overnight period.
This lowered some min temps over southern CWA.
Cloud cover is lifting over northern sections but a light snow
is still falling for most of the area. This will trend downward
this evening from north to south as the region is already
worked over and the moisture gets wrung out from ongoing snow.
Low pressure pulls away from the Ohio Valley tonight as high
pressure begins to build in from the west. Low temperatures will
be coldest in the north, likely reaching a few degrees subzero
in west central Ohio where skies clear earliest. However, based
on lingering northerly winds behind the departing high,
expecting the lowest wind chills in central Ohio... so have
issued a wind chill advisory there. Elsewhere, temperatures
generally drop into the single digits above zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds across the region on Saturday, then shifts
to the east Saturday night. Fair skies and single digit
dewpoints will be the rule during the day in the center of the
modified Arctic air mass. The next weak and generally dry front
drops southeast from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
Saturday night, causing an increase in clouds. Surface winds
turn southerly on the back side of the high, so low temperatures
will be a little less frigid: ranging from the single digits in
central Ohio to the mid teens in the Tri-State region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow with a weak low forecast to drop southeast across the
area Sunday. With a dry boundary layer and the best chance for snow
showers to our northeast, will continue with a dry forecast.
Temperatures to slowly moderate with highs Sunday from the upper 20s
north to the upper 30s south.
Dry conditions expected to continue into Monday into the first part
of Tuesday with broad mid level ridge building across the area.
Temperatures warm closer to normal with highs on Monday from near 30
north to the lower 40s south and then above normal Tuesday with
highs from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s south.
Split flow with northern stream shortwave causing a front to slip
into the area later Tuesday -- stalling out parallel to the
southwesterly mid level flow. Model trends farther east with this
front and therefore colder with temperatures. Will bring in
rain/snow mix changing to snow northwest and all rain southeast
Tuesday night.
Mid level flow backs southwesterly over the Ohio Valley as flow
phases and trof develops over the nations mid section. Moisture
increases with a surface wave ejecting northeast thru the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. A mix of rain and snow over the
northwest and rain southeast will transition to all snow sometime
Thursday. At this time frame there is the expected uncertainty
regarding the exact placement and timing of of the front, thermal
profiles and therefore precipitation type. The potential exists for
accumulating winter pcpn Wednesday night into Thursday with the
details to be determined as we get closer to the event.
Mean mid level trof to settle into the Great Lakes with another
Arctic high building in for the end of next week into the weekend.
This will offer dry weather with single digit above and below zero
temperatures likely Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad mix of MVFR cigs that are trending to VFR even as MVFR
snow is falling can be found across the region this evening.
Expect to gradually replace any lower cigs with VFR ceilings
within the next 2-4 hours under a brisk north wind 12-14kt.
Winds will lighten after this and any lingering snow will be VFR
and be very scattered in nature.
Winds gradually decrease through the night and then back to nw
and eventually w as they end up around 5-8kt during the day
Saturday.
OUTLOOK... No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ026-
035-043>046-051>056-065.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
KYZ089>091-094-095.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
INZ058-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks
