NWS Watch, Warning, Advisory or Statement is in effect for Boone County, KY. View Alert

NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 231414
          AFDILN
          
          Area Forecast Discussion
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          1014 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          Hot and humid conditions will continue through much of the week. The
          chance of showers and storms will return mid week and increase as we
          head into late week.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
          Made some minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points blending
          in latest guidance which overall slightly lowers heat indices, but
          not enough to affect the heat advisory. An isolated shower or storm
          cannot be ruled out during peak heating.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
          Sprawling mid and upper level ridge will persist through the period.
          Surface high axis will remain just southeast of the area keeping
          winds southwesterly. Hot temperatures look to top out in the mid 90s
          Tuesday after lows in the mid 70s. The high humidity combined with
          the hot temperatures will result in afternoon heat indices between
          100 and 105. Therefore, the heat advisory headline continues. Have
          allowed a slight chance for a diurnally driven thunderstorm in the
          afternoon across the west and north.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
          THe 500H ridge continues to retrograde over the Mid-Atlantic region
          and will be in the process of flattening out, thanks to waves moving
          through the larger flow across Canada. At the surface, heat indices
          are still forecast to reach Advisory criteria on Wednesday (low
          100s). However, a frontal boundary sagging through the northern Great
          Lakes region will provide some weak forcing to introduce PoPs,
          particularly north of I-70. SBCABE should be pretty robust during
          afternoon hours, so some stronger storms cannot be ruled out.
          
          The ridge continues to dampen as we head into the second half of the
          working week and thunderstorm chances continue as flow aloft becomes
          more zonal, with episodic shortwave disturbances moving through.
          These may provide enough forcing (combined with ample surface
          instability) to allow for some more organized storm modes. Machine
          learning highlights much of the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast for
          severe essentially every day through the end of the working week.
          So, it does seem that we might be heading into a more active
          pattern.
          
          As far as the heat goes... right now, the blend still holds onto
          above average temperatures, with heat indices reaching the upper
          90s/low 100s throughout the end of the week (particularly for areas
          south of I-70). However, given the introduction for additional
          precipitation chances, confidence in reaching Advisory criteria
          throughout this time frame is not quite as robust, so will hold off
          on extending any headlines for now.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
          Scattered cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon. River valley
          fog again is likely tonight. Along with the river valley fog some
          brief MVFR vsby restrictions are possible at KCVG and KILN overnight.
          
          
          OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
               051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
               Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ042-043-051-053-
               060>062-070>072-077-078.
          KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
               Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
          IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066-
               073>075-080.
               Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ074.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          
          SYNOPSIS...AR
          NEAR TERM...
          SHORT TERM...AR
          LONG TERM...CA
          AVIATION...AR
          
          
          
Skew-T

26,292 Views