NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)

Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 261431
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          1031 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023
          Weak high pressure to offer a dry weather today. Several
          chances for light rain return tonight through Tuesday. High
          pressure will then provide drier weather Wednesday and Thursday
          before a warmer and wetter pattern develops by the end of the
          Westerly mid level flow with weak surface high pressure centered
          over the area this morning shifting off to the east today.
          A weakening, progressive mid level shortwave over the Mid MS
          Valley to track thru the area overnight into Monday. Low levels
          are dry and model trends are slower with any pcpn. Have
          continued to keep the daylight hours dry with pcpn developing by
          late evening into the northwest.
          Expect mainly sunny skies this morning with high level clouds
          spilling in from the west this afternoon ahead of the next
          Abundant sunshine and light southerly surface winds will aid
          temperatures topping out from the upper 50s north to mid 60s
          As alluded to above, a weakening loosely-organized band of
          SHRA/TSRA will move into EC IN/WC OH after dark, with additional
          development of SHRA across the local area past midnight on the
          backside of the departing sfc wave.
          Rainfall of generally less than 1/4" is expected tonight into
          Monday morning, with the heaviest activity likely to focus near
          the I-71 corridor during the predawn hours.
          The light rain will depart to the E through mid-morning, with
          weak CAA/NW sfc flow becoming established through the day
          Monday. The combination of increased cloud cover and pcpn should
          keep temps tonight /relatively/ warmer, with lows ranging from
          around 40 degrees in WC OH to the upper 40s in N KY. The cloud
          cover should hang tight through most of the day Monday, meaning
          that temps may only rebound 6-8 degrees or so by the afternoon,
          topping out in the mid 40s (WC OH) to mid 50s (N/NE KY).
          Quasi-zonal flow is in place synoptically at the start of the
          period, with multiple shortwave impulses traversing through the
          larger flow. Guidance is notoriously poor at handling these
          types of impulses, so confidence in exact timing remains low.
          With this being said, remnants from the first impulse will likely be
          moving out of the region at the start of the extended, with some
          lingering light showers in the far southeast. Overnight lows into
          Tuesday morning bottom out in the 30s area wide. Another impulse
          moves by on Tuesday, but lowest levels seem reasonably dry, so any
          precipitation that falls may not make it down to the surface. Highs
          on Tuesday around climatological norms, in the upper 40s/low 50s.
          High pressure and weak ridging build in mid-week, drying us out and
          setting the stage for a warming trend- expecting end of week high
          temperatures to be in the upper 50s or even 60s as southerly flow
          takes over on the backside of the high.
          End of the week into the weekend is looking wet.... long range
          guidance suggests a H5 wave moving eastward over CONUS off of the
          coast of California with its associated surface low eventually
          redeveloping off the leeward side of the Rockies. Still a bit far
          out for any specifics, but definitely will be something to watch as
          we get closer.
          Aside from a few passing cirrus from time-to-time, mainly clear
          skies will prevail through 00z, after which midlevel clouds will
          increase from the W late in the evening.
          Thickening cloud cover will evolve from W to E between 00z-06z,
          with a weakening band of ISO/SCT SHRA forecast to move into the
          area after 03z or so. KDAY may get a stray SHRA from this
          initial activity before it slowly merges with additional RA
          development that will take place after 06z. Light RA will
          overspread the local area between 08z-15z Monday before drier
          conditions evolve toward end of KCVG 30-hr TAF. Although this
          activity should be primarily light in nature, some brief MVFR
          VSBYs cannot be completely ruled out.
          CIGs will transition from VFR to MVFR around 12z Monday, with
          MVFR CIGs lingering through most of the daytime. Light southerly
          winds around 6-8kts today will become more light/VRB between
          00z-09z before becoming more out of the NW at around 10-12kts
          toward 12z Monday behind the departing system.
          .OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are expected, with IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs
          possible, late tonight into early Monday.
          NEAR TERM...AR
          SHORT TERM...KC
          LONG TERM...CA