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NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)
Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T
FXUS61 KILN 262346 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 746 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving low pressure will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight and continuing Wednesday through Thursday. High pressure and dry air are forecast to return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A weak surface low over Illinois driven by a closed upper low over Iowa is beginning to influence the weather over ILN. Moisture and lift increasing in the east to southeast low level flow ahead of the low are producing radar echoes to the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms evident across Indiana are expected to move to western locations this evening before spreading farther east overnight. Mild overnight lows around 60 are forecast, supported by warm advection and increasing cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The upper low is forecast to slowly fill in while it tracks to the Central Great Lakes. At the same time, the weak surface low translates to Southern Indiana. Increasing moisture, lift and instability in the circulation around the system will allow the threat for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the short term. Period of most widespread precipitation appears to coincide with peak heating Wednesday afternoon, with showers and storms slowly decreasing from west to east Wednesday evening. Strong storms will be possible, organized by relatively potent winds aloft in an environment containing around 1000 J/KG CAPE. Temperatures remain a bit above normal, with highs ranging from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s south, and lows falling to about 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper low will be in the vicinity of northwest Ohio at the beginning of the period and continue to move east. This will result in showers and some thunderstorms persisting into Thursday and then moving off to the east and decreasing in coverage Thursday night. Clouds will start to decrease in western counties later Thursday but be slower to do so further east. Mid level ridge will then develop and become quite pronounced from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Thus another extended period of dry weather with little cloud cover and above normal temperatures will occur from Saturday through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Loosely-organized clusters of SHRA/TSRA will overspread SW sites of KCVG/KLUK through the first several hours of the TAF period, eventually nearing KDAY/KILN by/after 02z before weakening altogether with eastward extent. This activity will bring with it brief reductions in VSBYs in the heavier rates, along with several hours of TS (particularly near KCVG/KLUK). Although the primary band of SHRA/TSRA will weaken as it moves E through 06z, additional ISO/spotty SHRA should redevelop during the predawn hours near the Tri-State, eventually overspreading larger portions of the local area toward daybreak and beyond. This activity past 06z should be fairly spotty in nature, making it difficult to determine potential impact at one location or the other for any one time. On-and-off SHRA, with some TSRA potential as well, is on tap for the daytime period. Multiple narrow bands of activity will be possible, especially during the afternoon and evening. It won`t be a complete washout, but it is not likely to be completely dry, either. The main concern with any of this activity will be the sudden/abrupt reductions in VSBYs and potential for some gusty winds at times. However, this will be handled with amendments as needed. Some BR may lead to MVFR VSBY restrictions in the several hours around daybreak at KLUK/KILN, but the potential for lingering extensive cloud cover (even after 06z) lends itself to quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this potential. Light easterly winds will become more southeasterly during the daytime, generally staying at 10kts or less outside of convection. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Thursday. MVFR conditions possible tonight and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC
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Time: Tue 26-Sep-2023 at 21:56 EDT (Wed 27-Sep-2023 at 01:56 UTC) | Page Modified: 5/14/2021 7:05:44 PM (PID:20) |