NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)

Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 301032
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          632 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020
          As low pressure moves east through the Great Lakes, cool and dry
          air will settle into the northern Ohio Valley today. A weak area
          of low pressure will then move across the southern states on
          Tuesday, perhaps bringing some light rain to northern Kentucky
          and far southern Ohio. Dry conditions, with warming temperatures,
          are expected through the rest of the week.
          A stacked area of low pressure is currently centered near
          Sudbury ON, moving slowly eastward. Stratocumulus clouds
          associated with the low are currently extending into northern
          Indiana and Ohio, just barely making it into the ILN forecast
          area. These clouds are forecast to expand in coverage over the
          course of the morning, as the boundary layer becomes more mixed,
          a result of 925mb-850mb negative theta-e advection. In fact,
          based on upstream observations and HRRR wind gust projections,
          it appears that there is something of a frontal boundary about
          to enter the ILN CWA from northern Indiana. The deeper mixing
          occurring behind this boundary has led to some respectable wind
          gusts (as high as 39kts) and a few gusts above 30kts will
          probably occur in the ILN CWA as well. As the day goes on, wind
          gusts should settle in at about 25 knots, with a mixed boundary
          layer expected to keep the winds at this strength through the
          morning and afternoon.
          With clouds and cold advection most focused in the northern CWA,
          and with clearer skies and more neutral advection in the
          southern CWA, a temperature gradient is expected to develop from
          north to south across the area. Max temps may only reach the
          upper 40s in the north, but should clear 60 degrees in northern
          A general drying trend to the air mass is expected tonight, with
          the thicker stratocumulus clouds scattering out, at least to
          some extent. An area of surface high pressure will begin to
          nudge into the region from the NNW, with winds also weakening,
          becoming light out of the north Tuesday morning. This will set
          things up for some decent cooling, with min temps in the lower
          to upper 30s. A freeze certainly appears possible for areas
          northwest of Dayton. To note -- as of this writing, the spring
          frost/freeze program has not yet been initiated for the ILN
          forecast area.
          On Tuesday, a weak shortwave will be moving eastward across
          Arkansas, with surface low pressure also developing and moving
          east across MS-AL-GA. The model trend with regards to this
          system has continued to be weaker and further south, and several
          00Z model runs actually keep the ILN forecast area completely
          dry, at least through the daytime hours on Tuesday. The forecast
          will continue to be trended toward a drier solution, with just
          some low-end PoPs in the southern third of the CWA on Tuesday
          afternoon. This will be the coolest day of the entire 7-day
          forecast (mid to upper 40s) with clouds redeveloping, and NNE
          boundary layer flow.
          Any remaining rain in southeast counties at the beginning of
          the period will move out quickly Tuesday evening. Thereafter,
          high pressure will reassert itself through at least Friday.
          Temperatures will still be below normal on Wednesday but then
          warm later in the week.
          Heading into the weekend, there is uncertainty. A short wave
          will be pivoting from the northern Plains into the upper Great
          Lakes. With this system, 00Z operational models are trying to
          bring a front through the area. But with mid level forcing
          lifting away from the region, this may become a case where the
          front never makes it this far east, and ensemble means do
          suggest that may be the result. However, given 00Z model
          agreement felt it was prudent to have low chance PoPs in the
          forecast. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal.
          Gusty westerly winds are occurring across the area this
          morning, with gusts in the 25-30 knot range, and the
          possibility for a few gusts as high as 35 knots. These winds
          will generally settle into the 20-25 knot range after 15Z, and
          gusts are expected to diminish in the late afternoon, as winds
          gradually shift from the west to the northwest.
          MVFR clouds are currently north of the TAF sites, and these
          clouds will gradually move south. MVFR ceilings are expected at
          KCMH/KLCK, and perhaps also on occasion at KDAY. These MVFR
          clouds should go back to VFR by evening. Continued VFR
          conditions appear more likely for KILN/KCVG/KLUK.
          Early Tuesday morning, clouds will begin to thicken again, with
          MVFR ceilings moving back into the KCMH/KLCK airports.
          OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are expected from Tuesday morning
          through Wednesday morning.
          NEAR TERM...Hatzos
          SHORT TERM...Hatzos
          LONG TERM...

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