NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)

Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 111940
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          340 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021
          Low pressure will track east through the Lower Great Lakes and
          keep some form of scattered shower activity in the Ohio Valley
          through early Monday, then end from southwest to northeast
          during the day. A weak ridge of high pressure will then lay out
          from the Plains towards Kentucky through mid week, bringing dry
          weather. Wednesday will see an upper low in the Great Lakes and
          a surface low track from the Gulf states to the southeast,
          possibly bringing the next chance of rain.
          Cool air under a blanket of clouds will be found over the region
          through the evening and overnight hours. Scattered to numerous
          showers early on will become more scattered in the later evening,
          ending from the southwest later overnight. Before they do
          scatter out, two distinct areas will notably have a higher
          propensity for rain this late day and early evening. One is
          north of Dayton and will track due east. Another curves from
          the northwest and skirts south of the Ohio River in Kentucky.
          These areas may see a prolonged period of a steady rainfall for
          the next few hours before insolation ends and they begin a
          marked decrease this evening.
          Temperatures will drop fairly uniformly into the 45-48 degree
          range tonight and a continued southwest flow turning west at
          10-15 mph.
          The eastward moving surface low will see any rain lingering over
          central Ohio in the morning quickly giving way to a more
          scattered shower before ending. Not all of the models are in the
          same camp and some linger additional shower activity on the
          trailing edge of the cold pool later in the morning/early
          afternoon. This seems possible but not as probable as a clearing
          sky from w-e as the entire airmass tracks to the east early in
          the day, being replaced with drier air and high pressure nosing
          in from the west-northwest. Highs Monday will be near normal in
          the low to mid 60s. Readings in the west and southwest could tip
          towards 70 given a more sunny day than the remainder of the CWA.
          Central Ohio could be a little warm with the forecast out attm.
          readings in the lower 60s may end up only being in the upper 50s
          if the shower activity and cloud cover does linger in this area
          for a longer period of time.
          Overnight will be clear to partly cloudy with lows dropping into
          the lower 40s.
          A vertically-stacked cutoff low will continue to spin
          north/northeast of the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday
          while the system slowly drifts towards the northeastern US. As
          this occurs, surface high pressure will simultaneously try to
          build into the Ohio Valley from the west despite the area being
          on the southwestern flank of the upper-level low and possibly
          the far western flank of the surface low. This messy synoptic
          setup leaves the region in a regime with northwesterly/northerly
          surface winds through the middle of the work week along with
          sporadic chances for light rain showers and increased cloud
          cover when occasional, low- predictability, vorticity maximums
          rotate around the upper-level low. Northwesterly winds help keep
          temperatures near seasonal norms for the middle of April
          through Thursday.
          By Friday,the upper-level cutoff low reaches the northeast
          coast. This will likely result in the surface low translating to
          the eastern seaboard in a region more favorable for
          cyclogenesis. With the upper-level low and newly formed surface
          low off the east coast, upper level ridging may briefly build in
          over the Ohio Vally on Friday despite northerly surface winds
          persisting along with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.
          Rain chances then increase for the weekend due to upper-level
          ridging breaking down and the possibility of an upper-level
          shortwave approaching.
          Low pressure center currently located in northern Indiana near
          Lake Michigan will track east today and tonight. Wrap-around
          moisture and cold air are being pulled in on the cyclonic flow
          and will continue over the region through the next 24 hours.
          Shower activity will peak later this afternoon as insolation
          occurs, then wane this evening. Models continue to keep showers
          over the region near the low, and TAFs will likely see a lower
          MVFR to IFR cig and waffle on either side of the 1kft threshold.
          VSBYs will likely remain VFR, and only drop to MVFR in a heavier
          band. The banding of showers are being progged at different
          locations, and TAF forecast will continue to keep VFR showers
          and rain until the heavier bands form and begin to affect which
          airport (if any) they train over.
          Cold pool will linger over the region tonight and into Monday.
          Shower activity will become more widely scattered overnight, but
          a persistent nw-se oriented convergent zone is expected to
          maintain shower activity overnight, and could hit DAY/CVG/LUK or
          ILN. Actual location will likely be narrow, and odds of
          impacting any one TAF site for more than a passing shower are
          OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
          NEAR TERM...Franks
          SHORT TERM...Franks
          LONG TERM...Campbell

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