FXUS61 KILN 202253
          AFDILN
          
          Area Forecast Discussion
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          653 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          A fast-moving area of low pressure moving across the upper Great
          Lakes will bring a chance of precipitation late tonight into
          Tuesday. Below normal temperatures will follow the system on
          Wednesday through the end of the work week.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
          Surface high pressure slides by to the south this afternoon and
          evening which allows cool, dry, and clear conditions to continue.
          Tonight, the surface high moves further southeast and a low pressure
          system moves into the Upper Great Lakes. This low will increase the
          pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley thereby increasing southerly
          flow and moisture across the region. Some shower activity is
          possible later tonight between midnight and 8am when increased
          moisture overlaps with a pre frontal trough associated with the low
          to the northwest.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
          A cold front will push through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Shower
          activity is possible, but fairly limited, after the aforementioned
          pre frontal trough moves through in the morning ahead of the cold
          front. A more pronounced second round of showers is likely behind
          the front late Tuesday afternoon as an upper level vorticity max
          progresses through the Ohio Valley. Forecast highs are expected to
          get into the 60s ahead of the front before dropping into the 50s by
          the late afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions are will
          continue through the day.
          
          Unsettled conditions continue on Tuesday night with the low still
          over the Great Lakes and upper level troughing digging into the
          area. Winds around 15 mph, temperatures in the lower 40s, and a few
          showers are possible through the night.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
          Extended period begins with CAA/temperature anomalies over the area,
          with 850mb temps about 1-4 degrees below normal. The region is
          sandwiched between an upper trough departing across the lower Great
          Lakes, and high pressure beginning to build into the lower
          Mississippi Valley. A few showers associated with the departing
          trough are possible in central Ohio generally north of I70, but
          wouldn`t be surprised if showers ended up remaining further into
          northern Ohio. Highs in the upper 50s south and lower 50s north.
          
          As the upper trough departs the region Wednesday night, temperatures
          will dip into the mid 30s to near 40, but winds will remain elevated
          behind the departing trough to mitigate patchy frost formation. As
          surface ridging builds in on Thursday, slightly higher daytime
          highs, and then the coldest temperature of the season and light
          winds resulting in areas to widespread frost likely. Though with the
          approach of a deep cut off low over the SW states early Friday, warm
          frontal clouds ahead of this system could approach the Tri State and
          nudge overnight lows slightly higher. Friday highs will still be
          slightly below normal with upper 50s to lower 60s, then a slow
          warmup and return of showers for Saturday and Sunday.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
          SKC will prevail area-wide through the first part of the TAF period.
          SW LLWS on the order of 40-45kts will overspread the region between
          03z-06z, with an influx of some 6-8kft clouds past 06z. Some brief
          ISO SHRA will be possible between about 09z-12z before a brief
          clearing trend evolves once again toward mid-morning through early
          afternoon.
          
          Additional ISO/SCT SHRA (with some ISO TS possible) will develop
          between about 21z-00z, mainly for nrn sites. This will coincide with
          the arrival of some gusty conditions as SW winds increase to
          15-18kts, with gusts around 25kts, expected by late afternoon.
          Enhanced cloud cover will move back into the region after 21z as
          well, with cloud cover, gusts, and SHRA chances highest for nrn sites
          of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK for the final part of the TAF period. Westerly
          winds around 12-15kts, with gusts around 20-25kts, will persist
          through the end of the KCVG 30-hr TAF period into early Wednesday.
          
          OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible early Wednesday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          
          SYNOPSIS...
          NEAR TERM...
          SHORT TERM...
          LONG TERM...
          AVIATION...