FXUS61 KILN 220608
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
208 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the region tonight bringing warm
conditions for Thursday and Friday. The next chance for rain will
arrive later in the day on Friday with the next cold front. Cool
conditions return for the weekend behind the cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers have been skirting the far northwest part of the
forecast area. While these are moving away from the area, cannot
completely rule out some brief light rain in west central Ohio
for the next few hours.
Fog and stratus have developed across the central part of the
forecast area where there is shallow moisture under an
inversion. Short range guidance suggests that this near surface
layer will dry a bit before daybreak, so there is the potential
for some improvement. And across the southern counties, river
valley fog has become established and will most likely persist
into the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between high pressure to the
east and a low pressure system to the west on Thursday and Thursday
night. The resulting pressure gradient will result in increasing
southerly flow and well above average temperatures.
On Thursday, forecast highs are near 80 areawide under mostly sunny
skies. Lows only drop to near 60 on Thursday night with southerly
flow in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is high confidence that a surface low pressure is expected to
be moving through the Great Lakes region during the day on Friday. A
cold front associated with the low pressure moves into western
locations by late Friday afternoon, moving through the area from
west to east during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the
front, brisk southerly winds provide warm air and moisture advection
over all of the forecast area. Increasing cloud cover may help keep
temperatures a couple degrees cooler than Thursday, however, still
felt upper 70s and few lower 80s were appropriate. Throughout the
overnight, widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms help
to provide another modest chance for rainfall across abnormally dry
ground. Majority of the rain exits to the east by Saturday morning
with perhaps some light drizzle/showers hanging around through the
morning hours.
For the rest of Saturday, surface high pressure builds in from the
north, promoting cooler, northeasterly flow over the forecast area.
Temperatures struggle to climb out of the 50s as cloud cover limits
heating. Best chance for some clearing is across the north where
drier air attempts to erode away lower level overcast skies.
Temperatures cool fairly efficiently with upper 30s not out of the
realm of possibility across the north Saturday night. On Sunday,
attention switches to another low pressure developing in the Central
US. Warm air advection of the low allows for some moderation in
temperatures on Sunday, but cloud cover still keeps temps limited
across the north. Limited rain chances across the far north for
Sunday as a warm front moves northward during the day.
For the work week, the Ohio Valley is situated within stubborn
southwesterly flow as a deepening trough attempts to advance through
the Central US. This focuses southwesterly upper level flow over the
Ohio Valley. As a result, the region will be located within the
storm track as southwesterly flow advects moisture northeastward.
Rain chances are highest on Monday as confidence remains moderate
that a the low pressure and it`s associated cold from move through.
Uncertainty increases for Tuesday and Wednesday as there is low
confidence on the timing of the next shortwave embedded within the
flow. Model guidance now suggests a cut-off low forming over the
Southwest US, potentially providing a break in strong forcing within
the mean flow. Rain chances remain for Tuesday and Wednesday but are
low at this time. Temperature forecasts are made with low confidence
as frontal boundary positioning, precipitation, and cloud cover
differences lead to a wide range in temperature possibilities.
While rain chances are low, it`s hard to avoid the potential for
heavy rain associated with the positively tilted trough conceptual
model. At this time, guidance only holds on to this pattern for a
couple of days before cutting off a low over the Southwest US. If
this trough remains in the flow, much of next week could feature
chances for rain.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low level moisture has resulted in the development of fog and
stratus across most of the terminals. Not a straight forward
forecast as there are indications in guidance that this moisture
will decrease before 12Z. This is counter to what would be
expected in normal conditions and there are not signals as of
initial issuance that this will pan out. So have cautiously
allowed for some improvement in visibilities and ceilings.
during the early part of the TAF period with conditions becoming
VFR after 12Z. Thereafter just expect some cumulus with
southerly winds up to 10 kt during the day. Clouds and winds
will diminish around 00Z. Some fog is likely again at KLUK
before the end of the period.
OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms are possible on Friday afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceilings possible Friday night into Saturday
morning. Thunderstorms are possible again on Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...
