FXUS61 KILN 221955 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 355 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will move through early this evening. High pressure will build into the region for Saturday into Sunday morning. A system will bring a return of precipitation to the region Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A few rain and snow showers will be possible across central Ohio and the Scioto River Valley through the evening hours as an upper level disturbance moves through. Precipitation will taper off tonight and high pressure will build into the area. Gusty winds through early this evening will taper off as well. Went close to the blend for temperatures with lows in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure and dry conditions will be present through the short term period. Went close to the blend for temperatures with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Saturday. Lows Saturday night will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Winds will generally be light. Mostly clear skies are expected, however mid and high clouds will begin to move into the region late in the short term. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mid level short wave will move out of the central Plains on Sunday and weaken as it moves across the Ohio Valley on Monday. This will allow for an associated weak surface low to push east across the Ohio Valley region Sunday night through Monday. The models have trended a little faster with this feature and as a result, will go ahead and spread at least a chance of showers in from the west through late Sunday afternoon. The shower activity should then become more widespread Sunday night before tapering off from the northwest through the day on Monday. It looks like thermal profiles will generally remain warm enough to keep pcpn all rain, although suppose there is an outside chance of a few wet snowflakes mixing in across the north late Sunday night into early Monday. Highs on Sunday will range from the low 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s across the far southeast. A cooler airmass will filter down into the area on Monday with highs ranging from the low 40s in the northwest to the mid 50s across the southeast. Mid level ridging and an associated surface high will shift east across the eastern CONUS Tuesday through Wednesday. This will lead to dry conditions through mid week and a warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the 40s. We will then warm to seasonable readings on Wednesday with highs on Thursday then in the upper 50s to mid 60s. In developing southwesterly flow, some shower activity may begin to work in from the west Thursday night into Friday. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR and VFR cigs will be around through the afternoon and early evening hours. As an upper level disturbance moves through there will be some shower activity around KCMH and KLCK and therefore have a VCSH in there. Winds will be gusty through this time period as well. Later this evening cloud cover will decrease, winds will begin to subside, and precipitation will taper off. VFR conditions are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Novak
