FXUS61 KILN 061901
          AFDILN
          
          Area Forecast Discussion
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          201 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
          
          .WHAT HAS CHANGED...
          No substantial changes.
          
          &&
          
          .KEY MESSAGES...
          1) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with potential for
          severe weather.
          
          2) An unsettled weather pattern will bring more showers and storms
          to the region midweek.
          
          &&
          
          .DISCUSSION...
          KEY MESSAGE 1) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with
          potential for severe weather.
          
          A couple of weak impulses will move across the region ahead of a more
          substantial short wave tracking into the western Great Lakes Saturday
          afternoon. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will cross the
          forecast area during the afternoon with a trailing cold front moving
          through during the evening. Showers and some storms will occur along
          and ahead of the pre-frontal trough.
          
          There is some spread in solutions in regards to how much instability
          may develop in the pre-trough environment. If stratus develops and
          remains stubborn, then instability will be quite limited and the
          potential for any stronger convection will be very low. But if there
          is some heating, then more robust convection will be possible that
          could lead to strong to severe storms with damaging wind the primary
          concern. Joint probabilities of at least 500 J/kg CAPE and 0-6km
          shear at least 30 kt on both the HREF and REFS max out around 30 to
          40 percent from central Ohio to northeast Kentucky with lower
          probabilities further west.
          
          Any stronger storms could produce a narrow corridor of heavier rain.
          While this will be quite transient, there could be some localized
          flood concerns, especially for areas where the ground is saturated.
          
          KEY MESSAGE 2) An unsettled weather pattern will bring more showers
          and storms to the region midweek.
          
          Guidance suite has been trending towards a stronger short wave
          pushing into the region Wednesday night. Associated surface low will
          pass north of the area on Wednesday. Warm front out ahead of the low
          will lift across the region on Tuesday bringing an initial chance of
          showers and storms, but better chance will occur as the trailing cold
          front moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night. Precipitable
          water is forecast to increase to over 200 percent of normal. This
          will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall with these showers and
          storms. AI severe weather outlooks have been diverging, possibly due
          to variations in available instability. Nonetheless, still monitoring
          the potential for strong to severe storms as well.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
          VFR will prevail for at least the first half of the period. Cumulus
          will diminish with the loss of heating. South winds 10 to 15 kt will
          decrease slightly heading into the evening. Low level wind shear will
          develop across all terminals after 05Z and continue to around 13Z.
          After that time, winds will become gusty. It appears that some
          stratus may develop on Saturday with only moderate confidence on
          whether this will result in an MVFR ceiling. Showers and possibly
          some storms will affect the TAF sites late in the period.
          
          OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday
          night. MVFR visibilities and thunderstorms possible Saturday
          afternoon. MVFR conditions are possible Monday night into Tuesday.
          Thunderstorms possible Wednesday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          
          DISCUSSION...
          AVIATION...