NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 121049
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          649 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          An upper level low pressure system will meander near the area
          bringing off and on shower and thunderstorm activity to the
          region through the weekend.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
          Patchy shallow fog has developed across the area. More
          widespread cloud cover is starting to move in from the west and
          as it does expect vsbys to begin to improve. This shield of
          clouds is expected to remain in place through a large portion of
          the day. There will be the potential for an isolated shower or
          storm as a weak disturbance moves through. Went close to model
          blend temperatures for today with high temperatures in the 80s.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
          Expect generally dry conditions across the region tonight. A
          disturbance near and south of the Ohio River will bring the
          potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms across southern
          portions of the area on Thursday. With the location of the
          disturbance there will be more cloud cover across southern
          portions of the area on Thursday and less cloud cover across
          northern locations north of Interstate 70.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
          There remains some model uncertainty as to how exactly to handle the
          mid and upper level energy/trough/weak low moving out of the mid
          Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio Valley through the end of the
          week. The 00Z GFS brings the system farther north compared to the
          ECMWF, while the NAM is more in between but stronger with the upper
          level low and an associated surface low. While the operational ECMWF
          is keeping much of the pcpn south of our area, the ECMWF ensemble
          mean is a little farther north. Will therefore trend the forecast
          toward a model blend and keep pops in the chance category for Friday
          into Saturday given the uncertainty. Will have the highest pops
          across the south on Friday and then the southeast heading into
          Friday night and Saturday. This uncertainty will also have a
          possible effect on the temps and will again lean toward more of a
          blend and go with highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 80s.
          
          Additional short wave energy will drop down from the northwest Sunday
          into Monday but there are also some model timing differences with
          this. For now will allow for some chance pops on Sunday and then
          perhaps some lower end pops lingering into Monday before drying
          things out for Tuesday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the low
          to mid 80s with some slightly cooler temperatures possibly moving in
          by Tuesday.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
          There is some shallow fog around the area this morning. KLUK has
          some vsby restrictions with the river valley location. Expect
          vsbys to improve this morning. In addition some MVFR cigs
          southwest of KDAY may work into the TAF site for an hour or so
          this morning.
          
          Expect a mix of cu and high clouds across the TAF sites today.
          Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm, however due to the
          low probability kept out of the TAFs.
          
          OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Sunday, mainly
          in the afternoon and evening.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...Novak
          NEAR TERM...Novak
          SHORT TERM...Novak
          LONG TERM...JGL
          AVIATION...Novak
          
          
          
Skew-T

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