FXUS61 KILN 231414
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1014 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through much of the week. The
chance of showers and storms will return mid week and increase as we
head into late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points blending
in latest guidance which overall slightly lowers heat indices, but
not enough to affect the heat advisory. An isolated shower or storm
cannot be ruled out during peak heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Sprawling mid and upper level ridge will persist through the period.
Surface high axis will remain just southeast of the area keeping
winds southwesterly. Hot temperatures look to top out in the mid 90s
Tuesday after lows in the mid 70s. The high humidity combined with
the hot temperatures will result in afternoon heat indices between
100 and 105. Therefore, the heat advisory headline continues. Have
allowed a slight chance for a diurnally driven thunderstorm in the
afternoon across the west and north.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THe 500H ridge continues to retrograde over the Mid-Atlantic region
and will be in the process of flattening out, thanks to waves moving
through the larger flow across Canada. At the surface, heat indices
are still forecast to reach Advisory criteria on Wednesday (low
100s). However, a frontal boundary sagging through the northern Great
Lakes region will provide some weak forcing to introduce PoPs,
particularly north of I-70. SBCABE should be pretty robust during
afternoon hours, so some stronger storms cannot be ruled out.
The ridge continues to dampen as we head into the second half of the
working week and thunderstorm chances continue as flow aloft becomes
more zonal, with episodic shortwave disturbances moving through.
These may provide enough forcing (combined with ample surface
instability) to allow for some more organized storm modes. Machine
learning highlights much of the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast for
severe essentially every day through the end of the working week.
So, it does seem that we might be heading into a more active
pattern.
As far as the heat goes... right now, the blend still holds onto
above average temperatures, with heat indices reaching the upper
90s/low 100s throughout the end of the week (particularly for areas
south of I-70). However, given the introduction for additional
precipitation chances, confidence in reaching Advisory criteria
throughout this time frame is not quite as robust, so will hold off
on extending any headlines for now.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon. River valley
fog again is likely tonight. Along with the river valley fog some
brief MVFR vsby restrictions are possible at KCVG and KILN overnight.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ042-043-051-053-
060>062-070>072-077-078.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
