Information is from the NWS Wilmington, OH Office


ILN Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

FXUS61 KILN 221955
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move through early this evening.
High pressure will build into the region for Saturday into
Sunday morning. A system will bring a return of precipitation
to the region Sunday afternoon into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A few rain and snow showers will be possible across central Ohio
and the Scioto River Valley through the evening hours as an
upper level disturbance moves through. Precipitation will taper
off tonight and high pressure will build into the area. Gusty
winds through early this evening will taper off as well.

Went close to the blend for temperatures with lows in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure and dry conditions will be present through the
short term period. Went close to the blend for temperatures with
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Saturday. Lows Saturday
night will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Winds will
generally be light. Mostly clear skies are expected, however mid
and high clouds will begin to move into the region late in the
short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level short wave will move out of the central Plains on Sunday
and weaken as it moves across the Ohio Valley on Monday. This will
allow for an associated weak surface low to push east across the
Ohio Valley region Sunday night through Monday. The models have
trended a little faster with this feature and as a result, will go
ahead and spread at least a chance of showers in from the west
through late Sunday afternoon. The shower activity should then become
more widespread Sunday night before tapering off from the northwest
through the day on Monday. It looks like thermal profiles will
generally remain warm enough to keep pcpn all rain, although suppose
there is an outside chance of a few wet snowflakes mixing in across
the north late Sunday night into early Monday. Highs on Sunday will
range from the low 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s across the
far southeast. A cooler airmass will filter down into the area on
Monday with highs ranging from the low 40s in the northwest to the
mid 50s across the southeast.

Mid level ridging and an associated surface high will shift east
across the eastern CONUS Tuesday through Wednesday. This will lead
to dry conditions through mid week and a warming trend. Highs on
Tuesday will only be in the 40s. We will then warm to seasonable
readings on Wednesday with highs on Thursday then in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. In developing southwesterly flow, some shower activity
may begin to work in from the west Thursday night into Friday. Highs
on Friday will be mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR and VFR cigs will be around through the afternoon and early
evening hours. As an upper level disturbance moves through there
will be some shower activity around KCMH and KLCK and therefore
have a VCSH in there. Winds will be gusty through this time
period as well.

Later this evening cloud cover will decrease, winds will begin
to subside, and precipitation will taper off. VFR conditions
are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Novak


Skew-T

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