FXUS61 KILN 251426 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1026 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to the east today resulting in southerly winds that will bring increasing heat and humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the weekend, particularly in the afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure will be east of the area today allowing for southerly flow and warm temperatures. Went close to guidance with high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s. There is not a lot of forcing today, but there is some instability that develops across far southeastern portions of the forecast area across the lower Scioto Valley and therefore a few storms will be possible there this afternoon with daytime heating. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... This evening into Saturday morning weak PVA will approach the area from the west which will likely bring some form of weakening showers and thunderstorms into the area Saturday morning. During the afternoon Saturday a summer like pattern will begin to take hold as humidity and atmospheric moisture in general returns to the Ohio Valley. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely develop Saturday afternoon during peak heating as forecast soundings quickly destabilize. Shear values are extremely low, so am not expecting much in the way of severe. As mentioned above, it appears to be a day of garden variety showers and thunderstorms. Saturday night, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will slowly decrease as daytime heating is lost. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level short wave energy will push east across the southern Great Lakes through Saturday night. Between this and the loss of diurnal heating, we should see a decreasing chance of showers and thunderstorms from west to east across our area Saturday night. Some mid level ridging will try to build into the region Sunday into Monday, with our area in between the tropical system to the south and an upper level low over the Rockies. This will allow for temperatures to push into mid to upper 80s for highs on Sunday and then the upper 80s to near 90 for highs on Monday. The models are suggesting the possibility of a weak boundary pushing down into the region on Sunday. This, combined with decent instabilities, will result in the possibility for isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. By Monday, there is little in the way of forcing so think any thunderstorm activity will be fairy limited. Moisture associated with the tropical system to our south will work slowly north through mid week. This could allow for a few showers or thunderstorms to sneak into our southern areas by Tuesday, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms then pushing north across the rest of our area for Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with highs mainly in the mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will slide east of the TAF sites today with winds veering from the southwest. All sites will remain VFR through today with only some passing high clouds. Saturday morning the next upper level disturbance will approach the area with weakening showers and thunderstorms possible. Saturday afternoon, moisture rich air will move across the Ohio Valley allowing forecast soundings to quickly destabilize. As of now have left the TAF sites dry, but future TAF packages will likely have to start mentioning thunder. OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines
