FXUS61 KILN 102332
          AFDILN
          
          Area Forecast Discussion
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          732 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day through the week,
          particularly in the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures will be
          near to above normal for the week.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
          Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed. Expect
          additional development through the afternoon and into the evening
          hours. Most of the precipitation chances will then taper off,
          however there is a decaying system approaching late in the overnight
          hours that could bring a slight chance of precipitation to
          northwestern portions of the region. Across southeastern and eastern
          portions of the area overnight there will be the potential for some
          patchy fog. High and low temperatures will be near normal with highs
          in the 80s and lows in the 60s in most locations.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
          Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday,
          however expect less coverage than today. Dry conditions are then in
          the forecast for Friday night, although cannot rule out isolated
          precipitation Friday night. Temperatures will be slightly warmer
          with highs int he upper 80s to around 90 and lows mostly in the lower
          70s.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
          A mid level shortwave lifting northeast from the Central Plains will
          get absorbed by a much larger/deeper trough digging into the Great
          Lakes on Saturday. This places the Ohio Valley in a warm
          southwesterly flow which supports hot conditions Saturday afternoon.
          High temperatures look to top out in the lower 90s with heat indices
          approaching 100 degrees. Forcing looks to arrive late in the day
          Saturday into Saturday night, with some showers and thunderstorms
          developing during peak heating and continuing into the night. Best
          coverage looks to be across the west. With above normal moisture in
          the region, locally heavy rainfall is a possible.
          
          For Sunday, the trough and associated surface cold front move into
          the area providing an enhanced round of thunderstorms. The best
          chances are expected along and east of I-71 corridor (central &
          southern Ohio and northern Kentucky). This area would also have the
          best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy
          rainfall.
          
          The mid level trough over the Great Lakes lifts northeast, and
          heights rise as mid level ridging builds into the area early next
          week. Monday and Tuesday show a signal for a bit of a lull or less
          thunderstorm activity. Moisture remains, especially on Monday - so
          low pop chances remain in the forecast. Temperatures remain above
          normal but drop off slightly on Monday with highs generally in the
          mid and upper 80s Monday and then warm to around 90 Tuesday.
          
          Mid level ridge over the area eventually gets suppressed to the
          southeast as trof digs southeast into the northern Plains/Upper MS
          Valley. This favors an increase in moisture and increasing chances
          for thunderstorms at mid-week. In the wake of this trof there is a
          signal for below normal temperatures for the end of the week and
          into next weekend with possible highs in the 70s and lower 80s.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
          Radar still shows some isolated returns through central and southern
          Ohio, though no TAF sits are impacted at the moment. Given the very
          isolated nature of these storms, opted to not include a mention in
          TAFs and will AMD as needed during the evening hours. Storms die
          shortly after sunset.
          
          Winds become calm once again overnight and fog development is again a
          possibility, though probabilities indicate that VSBY restrictions
          should remain southeast of I-70. This suggests that KLCK, KILN, KLUK
          have the higher probability of being impacted, so have included VSBY
          restrictions during the early morning hours for those sites (mostly
          MVFR, but did take LUK down to IFR). Should be noted that fog may
          present as some low stratus, so CIGs may briefly come down as well,
          though did not include at this time due to low confidence. Similarly,
          for now, did not include any restrictions at KCMH since urban heat
          island effects tend to mitigate fog there- will AMD as needed.
          
          Friday will be relatively quiet, with diurnal cu; as such, mechanical
          turbulence can once again be expected. Similar to Wed/Thur,
          scattered afternoon showers and storms will blossom across the
          region. For now, included a mention of -SHRA at sites where
          confidence is somewhat higher of a afternoon pop-up, though it is a
          possibility at all sites and thunder may need to be added.
          
          
          OUTLOOK... Daily episodic afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
          possible through the weekend and into early next week.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          
          SYNOPSIS...
          NEAR TERM...
          SHORT TERM...
          LONG TERM...AR
          AVIATION...CA