FXUS61 KILN 250601
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, is
expected overnight as moisture pushes northeast ahead of an
advancing warm front. This unsettled weather pattern will
persist with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
offering the potential of heavy rain and flooding across
portions of the Ohio Valley until a strong cold front moves
through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
First round of showers is now exiting our eastern forecast area.
Region will be in a relatively lull through early morning behind
the exiting short wave. Thereafter, another low level jet and an
advancing warm front will allow showers, perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm, to develop. Latest HRRR has the greatest
convergence/focus across the Whitewater/Miami Valleys and west
central Ohio. This is where likely PoPs have been placed. It
should be noted that the models have been struggling with the
placement of this next round of rain, so this higher PoP event
could end up in other parts of the CWFA. We will continue to
monitor.

Not much of a diurnal drop in temperatures tonight with clouds
and winds staying up. Have lows remaining in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level trof to translate east and amplify with developing
surface low ejecting northeast across the upper MS Vly Tuesday
and the Great Lakes Tuesday night. Wind profiles are favorable
for organized storms Tuesday afternoon into the evening but
uncertainty exists regarding instability.

In southwest flow ahead of this system warm front lifts north
across the area overnight into early Tuesday. In the warm
sector, some breaks and advection of dewpoints into the upper
60s should yield moderate moderate instability of 1000-1500
j/kg during the late afternoon over ILN/s western counties. Have
continued mention of potential for severe weather in the HWO
product with damaging winds being the main threat.

Heavy rain threat to persist with pw/s remaining close to 2
inches and an enhanced coverage of convection later Tuesday
afternoon with an emphasis Tuesday night ahead of surface cold
front. Have flash flood watch across the south and southeast
thru Tuesday night with two day storm totals of 1 to 3 inches
and locally up to 4 inches possible.

Expect warmer temperatures with highs from the mid 70s
northeast to the upper 70s southwest. Mild lows Tuesday night
from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will be moving through during the daytime hours on
Wednesday.  As this front moves through there will be the potential
for a few isolated damaging wind gusts.  Outside of thunderstorm
activity wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph will be possible.
Precipitation will then taper off through day the day. Cooler
conditions will be present Wednesday night with lows dropping into
the 40s and 50s.

High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Friday night. On
Saturday a cold front moves through the region.  There is little in
the way of moisture with this system and therefore only have a
slight chance of rain showers in the forecast for Saturday.  On
Sunday there will be a gradient in temperatures as a warm front is
situated near the area.  This front will lift northward Sunday
night.  Moving into Monday, thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the area during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have become scattered in nature early this morning as
the region sits in an area of NVA. An area of VFR ceilings has
workedinto northeast KY and south central Ohio. This area has
clipped LUK at the start of the taf period. Elsewhere ceiling
were a mixture of IFR/MVFR.

Another low level will work into the region bringing more
widespread showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms after 09Z
to the nrn tafs. This should pull all tafs down to MVFR/IFR.

The lift across the region becomes weak again by mid morning.
The pcpn is expect to be scattered in nature so kept just a VCSH
for the late morning and transitioned to a VCTS with the heating
of the day, providing enough instability for thunder. Ceilings
should see a gradual rise to MVFR/VFR during the diurnal cycle.

Cold front will approach the tafs during the 30 hour portion of
the taf. Due to the timing late at night, not sure how much
thunder there will be, so kept just a VCTS.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR
visibilities expected to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ073-074-077>082-
     088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Sites