NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)


Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T

          FXUS61 KILN 041535
          AFDILN
          
          AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          1135 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          Weak disturbances moving across the region will bring a chance
          of showers and thunderstorms through Friday night. High pressure
          will build in from the north over the weekend bringing drier and
          cooler conditions.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
          Thunderstorms are already developing along and northwest of I-71
          this morning. Expect additional increasing coverage throughout
          the afternoon and into the evening hours. Model soundings are
          indicative that the main threats will be damaging winds and
          large hail. In addition heavy rain will also occur with these
          storm. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday,
          however still expecting warm conditions with high temperatures
          in the 80s.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
          Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing into the
          evening, particularly in southeast counties. Expect activity to
          wane in the overnight hours. But showers and storms will develop
          again on Friday with a diurnal peak. Environment will be
          similar to today, so some more robust storms will be possible.
          
          Lows will remain in the upper 60s in most areas tonight with
          highs back into the mid 80s on Friday.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
          Cut-off low south of California rejoins jet stream flow Friday night
          leading to an amplification of a downstream ridge in the central US
          and a trough over the Northeast. The amplified pattern allows for a
          cold front to move through the forecast area during the day on
          Saturday with a slight chance for scattered showers and an isolated
          thunderstorm primarily during the morning to early afternoon hours.
          Temperatures starting in the mid to upper 60s, and warm into the 80s
          through the afternoon. Northerly winds lead to some cold air
          advection along with lower humidity, likely resulting in a pleasant
          Saturday evening.
          
          Sunday and Monday are dominated by surface high pressure to the
          north and mid-level ridge over much of the eastern US. Mostly sunny
          skies and light northeasterly flow provide near normal temperatures
          and lower humidity on Sunday with temperatures a few degrees above
          normal on Monday.
          
          Tuesday and Wednesday`s weather greatly depends on the progress of
          Tropical Storm Cristobal, which is currently positioned 1500 miles
          south of WFO ILN, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico. Due to
          uncertainty with Cristobal`s near term forecast, changes in the
          current local forecast for Tue/Wed are likely through the coming
          days. Cristobal is expected to eventually move northward into the
          northern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. As the deep ridge
          shifts eastward, there is a window where remnants of Cristobal could
          eventually reach the Ohio Valley as they are intercepted by a deep
          trough moving eastward into the Central US. With this synoptic
          timing, the tropical airmass associated with the remnants would
          enhance rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. For temperatures,
          rather warm on Tuesday with southeasterly flow pushing temperatures
          into the mid to upper 80s with lower 90s possible. With higher rain
          chances on Wednesday, highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s are
          forecast.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
          Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region
          with the greatest coverage during peak heating. Still enough
          uncertainty in narrowing down when convection might impact
          terminals to continue with VCTS for a several hour period when
          probability is highest. There may be lingering showers in the
          wake of any storms. This will diminish during the night.
          Conditions are expected to remain VFR outside of any
          thunderstorms.
          
          OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Friday night.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          SYNOPSIS...
          NEAR TERM...Novak
          SHORT TERM...
          LONG TERM...McGinnis
          AVIATION...
          
          
Skew-T

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