FXUS61 KILN 041535
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1135 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances moving across the region will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms through Friday night. High pressure
will build in from the north over the weekend bringing drier and
cooler conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Thunderstorms are already developing along and northwest of I-71
this morning. Expect additional increasing coverage throughout
the afternoon and into the evening hours. Model soundings are
indicative that the main threats will be damaging winds and
large hail. In addition heavy rain will also occur with these
storm. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday,
however still expecting warm conditions with high temperatures
in the 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing into the
evening, particularly in southeast counties. Expect activity to
wane in the overnight hours. But showers and storms will develop
again on Friday with a diurnal peak. Environment will be
similar to today, so some more robust storms will be possible.
Lows will remain in the upper 60s in most areas tonight with
highs back into the mid 80s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cut-off low south of California rejoins jet stream flow Friday night
leading to an amplification of a downstream ridge in the central US
and a trough over the Northeast. The amplified pattern allows for a
cold front to move through the forecast area during the day on
Saturday with a slight chance for scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm primarily during the morning to early afternoon hours.
Temperatures starting in the mid to upper 60s, and warm into the 80s
through the afternoon. Northerly winds lead to some cold air
advection along with lower humidity, likely resulting in a pleasant
Saturday evening.
Sunday and Monday are dominated by surface high pressure to the
north and mid-level ridge over much of the eastern US. Mostly sunny
skies and light northeasterly flow provide near normal temperatures
and lower humidity on Sunday with temperatures a few degrees above
normal on Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday`s weather greatly depends on the progress of
Tropical Storm Cristobal, which is currently positioned 1500 miles
south of WFO ILN, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico. Due to
uncertainty with Cristobal`s near term forecast, changes in the
current local forecast for Tue/Wed are likely through the coming
days. Cristobal is expected to eventually move northward into the
northern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. As the deep ridge
shifts eastward, there is a window where remnants of Cristobal could
eventually reach the Ohio Valley as they are intercepted by a deep
trough moving eastward into the Central US. With this synoptic
timing, the tropical airmass associated with the remnants would
enhance rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. For temperatures,
rather warm on Tuesday with southeasterly flow pushing temperatures
into the mid to upper 80s with lower 90s possible. With higher rain
chances on Wednesday, highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s are
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region
with the greatest coverage during peak heating. Still enough
uncertainty in narrowing down when convection might impact
terminals to continue with VCTS for a several hour period when
probability is highest. There may be lingering showers in the
wake of any storms. This will diminish during the night.
Conditions are expected to remain VFR outside of any
thunderstorms.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...
