FXUS61 KILN 141522
          AFDILN
          
          Area Forecast Discussion
          National Weather Service Wilmington OH
          1022 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
          
          .SYNOPSIS...
          An Arctic cold front will move southeast across the region today,
          bringing a quick burst of snow. High pressure will then
          gradually build back into the region on Wednesday. Temperatures
          will remain much below normal through the period. The next
          appreciable chance for precipitation will be in the form of
          rain, arriving Friday night into Saturday ahead of the next
          frontal system.
          
          &&
          
          .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
          Mid and upper level shortwave over the Southern Great Lakes to
          dig southeast thru the Upper Ohio Valley today leaving a
          northerly flow in its wake. In response to this upper support -
          a weak clipper type surface low located over Southern Lake
          Michigan to track quickly east-southeast across Ohio today
          to a position over the Mid Atlantic by evening.
          
          A band of light snow will overspread the area with the best
          coverage/intensity across ILN/s northern counties. Due to the
          very cold air in place, snow ratios will likely be 20:1 or even
          a bit higher, so even our light liquid QPF could produce up to
          an inch of fluffy accumulation on the cold ground. Will continue
          with an SPS to message this hazard. High temperatures will
          range from the upper teens across the north to the upper 20s
          south of the Ohio River.
          
          &&
          
          .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
          High pressure will cause decreasing clouds tonight. This will
          likely lead to our coldest night during the current cold spell,
          as lows drop to a few degrees on either side of zero. Suppose a
          few sheltered areas/cold spots could make it down to the -5 to
          -10 range. Winds have trended a little lighter in recent
           guidance, so wind chills will likely range from zero to -10.
          
          On Wednesday, high pressure will continue to build across the
          middle Ohio River Valley. This will lead to mostly sunny skies
          and cold temperatures.
          
          &&
          
          .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
          High pressure over the area at the beginning of the period will
          quickly move off as a clipper rapidly moves through the Great Lakes.
          Trends are for this system to be a bit faster and a little more
          robust. So there will be the potential for snow showers to spread
          into northern counties late Wednesday night and then pass across
          much of the rest of the area Thursday morning before diminishing
          later in the day. Greatest coverage and potential for any light
          accumulations will be in central Ohio.
          
          In the wake of this system, a modified airmass will move into the
          area as high pressure passes south of the region. So temperatures
          will moderate, especially as the high moves east and southerly flow
          become established. This should result in the area being warm enough
          for rain when a southern stream system affects the area Friday night
          into Saturday, although a few wet snowflakes cannot be ruled out,
          particularly the further north you go.
          
          Northern stream short wave will quickly follow which will drive a
          cold front through the region on Saturday. That will mark the end of
          this brief warm up with temperatures falling back well below normal.
          A trailing disturbance could bring a little bit of light snow on
          Sunday with Monday looking dry.
          
          &&
          
          .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
          VFR conditions will likely come to an end as a disturbance moves
          into the Ohio Valley late this morning into the early afternoon.
          The system is moving quickly and will bring with it some light
          snow. Main impacts to aviation will likely be visibility
          restrictions in snow. There is plenty of uncertainty as to how
          low to go in the TAFs. However, timing should be quick due to
          its progressive nature.
          
          Next point to cover is the timing of decreasing MVFR clouds.
          The air behind the system is very cold and dry... however, with
          northerly flow at around 2,000 feet, climatology would suggest
          keeping MVFR cigs through the night into Wednesday morning due
          to cold flow over the upstream Great Lakes. Therefore, have held
          onto these clouds a bit later than guidance and will continue to
          monitor for future issuances.
          
          OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings likely late Thursday into Friday.
          
          &&
          
          .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          OH...None.
          KY...None.
          IN...None.
          
          &&
          
          $$
          
          SYNOPSIS...Hickman
          NEAR TERM...AR
          SHORT TERM...
          LONG TERM...
          AVIATION...