FXUS61 KILN 042338
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
638 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry conditions through Saturday. A low
pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley will bring the next
chance for precipitation on Sunday. Below normal temperatures will
continue into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Evening update...
Forecast remains on track with the well advertised drop in
temperatures across the locations with snow on the ground and with
clear skies overhead. Some locations across west-central and central
Ohio are likely in the single digits within the next hour or two.
Farther to the south, cloud cover inhibits cooling, with temperatures
in the upper teens and 20s throughout the overnight. Along the
boundary of clear skies and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will
vary quite significantly as winds go light and variable. As noted
below, temperatures may bounce around depending on the cloud cover.
If significant differences between observations and the forecast
develop, adjustments will be made.
Previous discussion...(1232 pm)
Surface high pressure will be centered over the southern Great Lakes
early this evening before shifting off to the east through tonight.
As it does, a southern stream system will lift northeast into the
eastern Tennessee Valley later tonight.
While skies have partially cleared from the north this afternoon,
some mid and high level clouds will continue to stream northeastward
across the area at times this evening. Clouds will then begin to
thicken up later tonight across at least our southern areas, ahead
of a low pressure system moving off to our southeast. The temperature
forecast for tonight will be a little tricky given the light winds,
snow cover and variable cloud cover. Expect to see an early drop off
in areas that remain clear enough, and then a steadying or maybe
even slowly rising trend later tonight as clouds increase. Will range
lows tonight from the lower single digits in our far northwest to
the upper teens in our far south/southeast. The current forecast
keeps temperatures just above the records, but we may get close in
the north depending on cloud cover: CMH 8(1976), DAY 6 (1901), CVG 9
(1886).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will slowly weaken across the region through
the day on Friday as a weak cold front approaches from the
northwest through Friday night. Skies will become partly cloudy
through the day on Friday as we remain cold, with highs ranging from
the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Lows Friday night will be
in the upper teens to lower 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday looks to have a weak surface boundary clipping the lower
Great Lakes and washing out over the CWA. Also noted with varying
timing/intensity is a strongly sheared yet respectable h5 vort max
found primarily during the daytime hours. Just enough information
for me to add flurries to the forecast at this moment in time.
Sunday is expected to see a sfc low over MO track east into OHVly
and open into a relatively broad open trough ahead of a cold front.
The front looks to cross in the afternoon, bringing with it the next
chance for snow. European deterministic model at this time frame
stands out. Looking at the ensemble MOS at DAY, the 00Z Euro has a
standard deviation of 23 in 12 hour daytime pops ranging from 78% to
13%. While not as drastic, temp standard deviation increases to 3 for
the overnight lows (25 vs 12 deg) and remains at a 3 or higher going
forward in time. Ultimately, this leads me to call into question the
European and subsequently the NBM beyond Sunday.
Ahead of the low, east/southeast wind should prevail and quickly
shift w/nw by the afternoon. NBM was adjusted wrt temps being too
warm in the south/southeast CWA which naturally introduced a
rain/snow mix with an unreasonable n/nwwd extension. Dropped temps
on Sun which fell in line a little better with offices to the w and
s, and pushed the r/s line a little higher using 35/37 sfc temps as
thresholds.
Another l/w trough is being offered up for Wednesday, and the
trailing surface front looks to be equally strong. Given current
solutions, warm air ahead of it should keep an all-liquid ptype. I
would expect a changeover to snow before it ends, but this type of
detail isn`t reasonable to convey this far out - let`s just
call it warmer with rain.
Coolest temps of the period occur on Sunday with highs in the 20s,
near 30 in the far sern CWA and overnight lows in the single digits
nw, mid-upper teens most other locations, near 20 in the far se.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGs have pushed southward over the last few hours, stretching
along the Ohio River as the low pressure passes to the south.
Overnight, these MVFR CIGs gradually shift northward, providing MVFR
CIGs to CVG/LUK and eventually ILN/DAY before daybreak. The extent
northward is a bit unknown and adjustments may be needed based on
satellite trends. Even now, CVG is observing a portion of the BKN
MVFR deck with clear skies of LUK to the east. Confidence increases
over the next few hours for MVFR restrictions to become more
persistent at CVG/LUK.
High pressure will build into the region through the day on Friday
with VFR conditions expected through the tail end of the TAF period.
Winds are light and variable tonight, swinging from northeasterly to
southerly after 12Z. Winds are less than 10 knots throughout much of
the TAF period, approaching 10 knots at DAY/ILN/CVG Friday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...McGinnis
