FXUS61 KILN 301032
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
632 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure moves east through the Great Lakes, cool and dry
air will settle into the northern Ohio Valley today. A weak area
of low pressure will then move across the southern states on
Tuesday, perhaps bringing some light rain to northern Kentucky
and far southern Ohio. Dry conditions, with warming temperatures,
are expected through the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A stacked area of low pressure is currently centered near
Sudbury ON, moving slowly eastward. Stratocumulus clouds
associated with the low are currently extending into northern
Indiana and Ohio, just barely making it into the ILN forecast
area. These clouds are forecast to expand in coverage over the
course of the morning, as the boundary layer becomes more mixed,
a result of 925mb-850mb negative theta-e advection. In fact,
based on upstream observations and HRRR wind gust projections,
it appears that there is something of a frontal boundary about
to enter the ILN CWA from northern Indiana. The deeper mixing
occurring behind this boundary has led to some respectable wind
gusts (as high as 39kts) and a few gusts above 30kts will
probably occur in the ILN CWA as well. As the day goes on, wind
gusts should settle in at about 25 knots, with a mixed boundary
layer expected to keep the winds at this strength through the
morning and afternoon.
With clouds and cold advection most focused in the northern CWA,
and with clearer skies and more neutral advection in the
southern CWA, a temperature gradient is expected to develop from
north to south across the area. Max temps may only reach the
upper 40s in the north, but should clear 60 degrees in northern
Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A general drying trend to the air mass is expected tonight, with
the thicker stratocumulus clouds scattering out, at least to
some extent. An area of surface high pressure will begin to
nudge into the region from the NNW, with winds also weakening,
becoming light out of the north Tuesday morning. This will set
things up for some decent cooling, with min temps in the lower
to upper 30s. A freeze certainly appears possible for areas
northwest of Dayton. To note -- as of this writing, the spring
frost/freeze program has not yet been initiated for the ILN
forecast area.
On Tuesday, a weak shortwave will be moving eastward across
Arkansas, with surface low pressure also developing and moving
east across MS-AL-GA. The model trend with regards to this
system has continued to be weaker and further south, and several
00Z model runs actually keep the ILN forecast area completely
dry, at least through the daytime hours on Tuesday. The forecast
will continue to be trended toward a drier solution, with just
some low-end PoPs in the southern third of the CWA on Tuesday
afternoon. This will be the coolest day of the entire 7-day
forecast (mid to upper 40s) with clouds redeveloping, and NNE
boundary layer flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any remaining rain in southeast counties at the beginning of
the period will move out quickly Tuesday evening. Thereafter,
high pressure will reassert itself through at least Friday.
Temperatures will still be below normal on Wednesday but then
warm later in the week.
Heading into the weekend, there is uncertainty. A short wave
will be pivoting from the northern Plains into the upper Great
Lakes. With this system, 00Z operational models are trying to
bring a front through the area. But with mid level forcing
lifting away from the region, this may become a case where the
front never makes it this far east, and ensemble means do
suggest that may be the result. However, given 00Z model
agreement felt it was prudent to have low chance PoPs in the
forecast. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Gusty westerly winds are occurring across the area this
morning, with gusts in the 25-30 knot range, and the
possibility for a few gusts as high as 35 knots. These winds
will generally settle into the 20-25 knot range after 15Z, and
gusts are expected to diminish in the late afternoon, as winds
gradually shift from the west to the northwest.
MVFR clouds are currently north of the TAF sites, and these
clouds will gradually move south. MVFR ceilings are expected at
KCMH/KLCK, and perhaps also on occasion at KDAY. These MVFR
clouds should go back to VFR by evening. Continued VFR
conditions appear more likely for KILN/KCVG/KLUK.
Early Tuesday morning, clouds will begin to thicken again, with
MVFR ceilings moving back into the KCMH/KLCK airports.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are expected from Tuesday morning
through Wednesday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hatzos
