NWS Watch, Warning, Advisory or Statement is in effect for Boone County, KY. View Alert
NWS Wilmington, OH Office (ILN)
Area Forecast Discussion/SKEW-T
FXUS61 KILN 231414 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1014 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through much of the week. The chance of showers and storms will return mid week and increase as we head into late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made some minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points blending in latest guidance which overall slightly lowers heat indices, but not enough to affect the heat advisory. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out during peak heating. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Sprawling mid and upper level ridge will persist through the period. Surface high axis will remain just southeast of the area keeping winds southwesterly. Hot temperatures look to top out in the mid 90s Tuesday after lows in the mid 70s. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will result in afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105. Therefore, the heat advisory headline continues. Have allowed a slight chance for a diurnally driven thunderstorm in the afternoon across the west and north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THe 500H ridge continues to retrograde over the Mid-Atlantic region and will be in the process of flattening out, thanks to waves moving through the larger flow across Canada. At the surface, heat indices are still forecast to reach Advisory criteria on Wednesday (low 100s). However, a frontal boundary sagging through the northern Great Lakes region will provide some weak forcing to introduce PoPs, particularly north of I-70. SBCABE should be pretty robust during afternoon hours, so some stronger storms cannot be ruled out. The ridge continues to dampen as we head into the second half of the working week and thunderstorm chances continue as flow aloft becomes more zonal, with episodic shortwave disturbances moving through. These may provide enough forcing (combined with ample surface instability) to allow for some more organized storm modes. Machine learning highlights much of the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast for severe essentially every day through the end of the working week. So, it does seem that we might be heading into a more active pattern. As far as the heat goes... right now, the blend still holds onto above average temperatures, with heat indices reaching the upper 90s/low 100s throughout the end of the week (particularly for areas south of I-70). However, given the introduction for additional precipitation chances, confidence in reaching Advisory criteria throughout this time frame is not quite as robust, so will hold off on extending any headlines for now. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon. River valley fog again is likely tonight. Along with the river valley fog some brief MVFR vsby restrictions are possible at KCVG and KILN overnight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ042-043-051-053- 060>062-070>072-077-078. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089>100. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...AR
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Time: Mon 23-Jun-2025 at 20:58 EDT (Tue 24-Jun-2025 at 00:58 UTC) | Page Modified: 5/14/2021 7:05:44 PM (PID:20) |